vs
⚽ La Liga
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Celta Vigo face Osasuna in the La Liga, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Celta Vigo won 3, Osasuna won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10.4% | 11.9% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Celta Vigo or Draw at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Celta Vigo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.10 (+7.4% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Celta Vigo and Osasuna. Wins shown from Celta Vigo’s perspective: Celta Vigo 3 · Osasuna 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Celta Vigo | 1 – 2 | Osasuna | L |
| 2025-10-26 | Osasuna | 2 – 3 | Celta Vigo | W |
| 2025-02-21 | Celta Vigo | 1 – 0 | Osasuna | W |
| 2024-09-01 | Osasuna | 3 – 2 | Celta Vigo | L |
| 2024-02-04 | Osasuna | 0 – 3 | Celta Vigo | W |
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Celta Vigo at 53% to win and Osasuna at 19%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo Win | 53% | 2.00 | +6.7% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.35 | -7.7% |
| Osasuna Win | 19% | 3.70 | -29.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Celta Vigo or Draw at 1.25 (79% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo or Draw | 79% | 1.25 | -1.3% |
| Osasuna or Draw | 45% | 1.77 | -20.8% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 3.80 | +10.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 2.10 | +7.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 1.36 | +2.7% |
| Under 3.5 | 71% | 1.25 | -11.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 1.70 | -16.9% |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 3.10 | -24.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.90 | +2.3% |
| BTTS No | 46% | 1.85 | -14.6% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our main pick is Celta Vigo or Draw at odds 1.25, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.10 (+7.4% value).
Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our model makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna.
What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.58 for Celta Vigo and 1.14 for Osasuna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Celta Vigo and Osasuna play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.