Thu 22 Oct19:00Upcoming

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Celtic vs Celta Vigo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Celtic vs Celta Vigo in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Celtic face Celta Vigo in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.4-2.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Celtic vs Celta Vigo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

89%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.44 – 2.29 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.4%	5.5%	6.3%	4.8%	2.7%
1	3.5%	7.9%	9.1%	6.9%	4.0%
2	2.5%	5.7%	6.5%	5.0%	2.9%
3	1.2%	2.7%	3.1%	2.4%	1.4%
4	0.4%	1.0%	1.1%	0.9%	0.5%

Projected score: 1-2

Celtic winDrawCelta Vigo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Celtic vs Celta Vigo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 89% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Celta Vigo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points yes (68%).

📊 Key numbers

Celtic 32%Draw 26%Celta Vigo 42%

32%26%42%

42%

Celta Vigo Win

72%

Over 2.5 goals

68%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Celtic

Celtic come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 7-1 at home to Heart Of Midlothian. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Benfica.

WCeltic 7-1 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
LBenfica 4-1 CelticUEFA Europa League
WMotherwell 0-2 CelticPremiership
LCeltic 0-1 RangersPremiership
LCeltic 1-3 FerencvárosUEFA Europa League

Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Racing Santander. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Juventus.

WCelta Vigo 2-1 AlavésLa Liga
LCelta Vigo 1-2 JuventusUEFA Europa League
DElche 0-0 Celta VigoLa Liga
WCelta Vigo 5-0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
LOmonia Nicosia 1-0 Celta VigoUEFA Europa League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Celtic

L. EmenaloOff the roster
A. JohnstonLeg Injury
JotaOff the roster
S. MheukaOff the roster
J. van den BergOff the roster
C. Carter-VickersHealth problems
Yang Hyun-JunHamstring Injury

Celta Vigo

J. El AbdellaouiKnee Injury
B. IglesiasCalf Injury
A. NunezGroin Injury
M. RomanKnee Injury
C. StarfeltMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Celtic at 32% to win and Celta Vigo at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Celta Vigo Win	42%	37%	@ 2.60
Celtic Win	32%	35%	@ 2.70
Draw	26%	28%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Celta Vigo or Draw at 1.44 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Celta Vigo or Draw	68%	65%	@ 1.44
Celtic or Draw	58%	63%	@ 1.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-2.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 72% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	89%	76%	@ 1.25
Over 2.5	72%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 3.5	51%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 3.5	49%	68%	@ 1.40
Under 2.5	28%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	11%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	68%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	32%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Celtic 35%Draw 27%Celta Vigo 37%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	62%
Dixon-Coles	Away	52%
GradientBoosting	Home	37%

Two of our three models agree on the match result; the third sees it differently.

Expected goals: 1.19 for the home side, 1.41 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Celtic vs Celta Vigo?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 89% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Celtic vs Celta Vigo?

Our model makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.4-2.3 scoreline for Celtic vs Celta Vigo.

What is the predicted score for Celtic vs Celta Vigo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.44 for Celtic and 2.29 for Celta Vigo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Celtic and Celta Vigo play?

Kick-off is Thursday 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.