⚽ Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs KV Mechelen Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen in the Jupiler Pro League. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:15 UTC.
Result: Charleroi 2-0 KV Mechelen
Charleroi vs KV Mechelen finished 2-0. Charleroi won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Charleroi face KV Mechelen in the upcoming Jupiler Pro League tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:15 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Charleroi won 2, KV Mechelen won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Charleroi win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.6-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.7% | 9.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is KV Mechelen with a +1.75 start at odds 1.28, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Charleroi win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Charleroi and KV Mechelen. Wins shown from Charleroi’s perspective: Charleroi 2 · 1 drawn · KV Mechelen 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Charleroi | 2 – 0 | KV Mechelen | W |
| 2025-05-18 | KV Mechelen | 1 – 1 | Charleroi | D |
| 2025-04-19 | Charleroi | 3 – 0 | KV Mechelen | W |
| 2025-03-08 | Charleroi | 0 – 1 | KV Mechelen | L |
| 2024-08-31 | KV Mechelen | 5 – 2 | Charleroi | L |
📈 Recent form
Charleroi come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Kortrijk. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Union St. Gilloise.
- WCharleroi 3-2 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- WZulte Waregem 0-1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- LCharleroi 2-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- WKortrijk 1-3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- WCharleroi 2-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
KV Mechelen come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Anderlecht.
- DLommel United 0-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- LKV Mechelen 0-1 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- LKV Mechelen 0-4 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- DRAAL La Louvière 2-2 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- LCharleroi 2-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Charleroi at 51% to win and KV Mechelen at 22%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Charleroi win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi Win | 51% | 54% | @ 1.71 |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| KV Mechelen Win | 22% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Charleroi or Draw at 1.19 (77% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi or Draw | 77% | 79% | @ 1.19 |
| KV Mechelen or Draw | 48% | 46% | @ 2.08 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 76% | @ 1.23 |
| Under 3.5 | 73% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 53% | @ 1.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
| Under 1.5 | 26% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 55% | @ 1.68 |
| BTTS No | 49% | 45% | @ 2.04 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Charleroi or KV Mechelen is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi +0.75 | 80% | 83% | 1.15 |
| KV Mechelen +2 | 80% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Charleroi +0.5 | 77% | 77% | 1.21 |
| KV Mechelen +1.75 | 76% | 74% | 1.28 |
| KV Mechelen +1.5 | 72% | 68% | 1.38 |
| Charleroi +0.25 | 71% | – | 1.26 |
| KV Mechelen +1.25 | 66% | 64% | 1.48 |
| Charleroi 0 | 65% | – | 1.32 |
| KV Mechelen +1 | 60% | 59% | 1.62 |
| Charleroi -0.25 | 58% | 62% | 1.53 |
| KV Mechelen +0.75 | 54% | 50% | @ 1.92 |
| Charleroi -0.5 | 52% | 55% | 1.72 |
| KV Mechelen +0.5 | 48% | 45% | 2.08 |
| Charleroi -0.75 | 46% | 50% | 1.93 |
| KV Mechelen +0.25 | 42% | 38% | @ 2.52 |
| Charleroi -1 | 40% | 41% | 2.33 |
| Charleroi -1.25 | 34% | 36% | 2.67 |
| Charleroi -1.5 | 28% | 32% | 2.94 |
| Charleroi -1.75 | 24% | 26% | 3.71 |
| KV Mechelen -0.5 | 23% | 23% | 4.05 |
| Charleroi -2 | 20% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| KV Mechelen -0.75 | 19% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Our model's main pick is KV Mechelen with a +1.75 start at odds 1.28, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Our model makes a Charleroi win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.0 scoreline for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen.
What is the predicted score for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.63 for Charleroi and 0.99 for KV Mechelen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Charleroi and KV Mechelen play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:15 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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