⚽ Major League Soccer
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 15 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.
Chicago Fire face Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Thursday 15 October 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Chicago Fire have 2 wins from their last 5, while Philadelphia Union have 5 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Chicago Fire won 1, Philadelphia Union won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.7-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| 2 | 3.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (72%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union. Wins shown from Chicago Fire’s perspective: Chicago Fire 1 · 2 drawn · Philadelphia Union 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-04 | Chicago Fire | 4 – 3 | Philadelphia Union | W |
| 2024-02-25 | Philadelphia Union | 2 – 2 | Chicago Fire | D |
| 2023-04-16 | Chicago Fire | 2 – 2 | Philadelphia Union | D |
| 2023-03-12 | Philadelphia Union | 1 – 0 | Chicago Fire | L |
📈 Recent form
Chicago Fire come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Vancouver Whitecaps. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Nashville SC.
- WChicago Fire 2-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- WChicago Fire 3-1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- WCharlotte 0-1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- LNashville SC 3-0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- LChicago Fire 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
Philadelphia Union come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 20 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WPhiladelphia Union 2-1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 4-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- WSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- D. D'AvillaSuspended (red card)
- A. FrancoKnee Injury
- R. LodLower-Body Injury
- A. MekvabishviliLower-Body Injury
- S. RogersLower-Body Injury
- A. AnelloGroin Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Chicago Fire at 35% to win and Philadelphia Union at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union Win | 42% | 37% | @ 2.50 |
| Chicago Fire Win | 35% | 39% | @ 2.40 |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | @ 3.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Philadelphia Union or Draw at 1.53 (66% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 66% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| Chicago Fire or Draw | 60% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 46% | @ 2.00 |
| Under 3.5 | 45% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Under 1.5 | 10% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 72%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 72% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 28% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 65%.
Who is the favourite for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.7-2.2 scoreline for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union.
What is the predicted score for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.72 for Chicago Fire and 2.18 for Philadelphia Union. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union play?
Kick-off is Thursday 15 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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