vs
⚽ UEFA Europa League
CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC.
CSKA Sofia face Qarabag in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: CSKA Sofia have 2 wins from their last 3, while Qarabag have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 3 meetings, Qarabag won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.6-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Our prediction for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a CSKA Sofia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (63%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.10 (+38.4% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices CSKA Sofia at 41% to win and Qarabag at 28%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia Win | 41% | 2.50 | +3.3% |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 | -1.2% |
| Qarabag Win | 28% | 2.78 | -21.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is CSKA Sofia or Draw at 1.42 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia or Draw | 72% | 1.42 | +1.8% |
| Qarabag or Draw | 59% | 1.50 | -12.0% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 3.80 | +46.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 2.10 | +38.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 1.36 | +11.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 61% | 1.25 | -23.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 1.70 | -42.0% |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 3.10 | -44.8% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.77 | +10.8% |
| BTTS No | 37% | 1.90 | -28.9% |
How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 43% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 41% |
Our ensemble puts this selection at 82%. The model table above shows each model’s view of the match winner; this pick is on a different market (goals or handicap), where the ensemble combines all available models into the probability shown.
Our model estimates a 82% chance for this selection, while the odds of 1.32 imply 76%. That gap between our estimate and the market price is where the value lies.
Expected goals: 1.59 for the home side, 1.33 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with 82% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.10 (+38.4% value).
Who is the favourite for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag?
Our model makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag.
What is the predicted score for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 1.59 for CSKA Sofia and 1.33 for Qarabag. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do CSKA Sofia and Qarabag play?
Kick-off is Thursday 30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
More predictions
Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.