⚽ UEFA Europa League

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Egnatia Rrogozhinë face Lillestrom in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.7-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

77%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.66 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.9%	6.9%	4.0%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.8%	11.5%	6.7%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.1%	9.5%	5.6%	2.2%	0.6%
3	4.5%	5.3%	3.1%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.9%	2.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Egnatia Rrogozhinë winDrawLillestrom win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 77%. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (56%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Draw at odds 1.83 (+15.6% model value).

Best value

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Draw at odds 1.83, 63% model probability, +15.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 18%Draw 64%Lillestrom 18%

18%64%18%

64%

Draw

54%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

+15.6%

Best value: Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Draw

📈 Recent form

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Egnatia Rrogozhinë come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at home to Petrocub. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Shamrock Rovers.

WEgnatia Rrogozhinë 5-1 Shamrock RoversUEFA Europa League
LShamrock Rovers 3-1 Egnatia RrogozhinëUEFA Europa League
DCelje 1-1 Egnatia RrogozhinëUEFA Champions League
DEgnatia Rrogozhinë 3-3 CeljeUEFA Champions League
WEgnatia Rrogozhinë 6-1 PetrocubUEFA Champions League

Lillestrom

Lillestrom come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to KFUM Oslo. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Rosenborg.

DKFUM Oslo 1-1 LillestromEliteserien
LLillestrom 0-2 RosenborgEliteserien
LBodo/Glimt 4-0 LillestromEliteserien
LLillestrom 1-2 VikingEliteserien
WLillestrom 2-1 KFUM OsloEliteserien

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 18% to win and Lillestrom at 18%, with the draw at 64%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	64%	@ 3.60	+130.2%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Win	18%	@ 3.75	-32.6%
Lillestrom Win	18%	@ 1.91	-65.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Draw at 1.83 (63% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Draw	63%	@ 1.83	+15.6%
Lillestrom or Draw	63%	@ 1.25	-20.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 2.5	54%	@ 1.85	-0.5%
Over 1.5	77%	@ 1.28	-0.9%
Over 3.5	32%	@ 3.10	-2.4%
Under 3.5	68%	@ 1.35	-7.5%
Under 2.5	46%	@ 1.93	-10.8%
Under 1.5	23%	@ 3.60	-18.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	56%	@ 1.70	-5.0%
BTTS No	44%	@ 2.00	-11.7%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	49%
GradientBoosting	Draw	77%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.29 for the home side, 1.30 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 77% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Draw at 1.83 (+15.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom.

What is the predicted score for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.66 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 1.17 for Lillestrom. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Lillestrom play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.