Sat 17 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Estac Troyes vs Lens Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estac Troyes vs Lens in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Estac Troyes face Lens in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Estac Troyes have 1 win from their last 5, while Lens have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lens win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.3-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estac Troyes vs Lens with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.57

70%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.31 – 1.43 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	9.2%	6.6%	3.1%	1.1%
1	8.5%	12.1%	8.6%	4.1%	1.5%
2	5.5%	7.9%	5.7%	2.7%	1.0%
3	2.4%	3.5%	2.5%	1.2%	0.4%
4	0.8%	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Estac Troyes winDrawLens win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Estac Troyes vs Lens comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lens win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Estac Troyes 23%Draw 30%Lens 47%

23%30%47%

47%

Lens Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Lorient. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Marseille.

LEstac Troyes 0-2 MarseilleLigue 1
LAngers 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LLille 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LEstac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgLigue 1
WLorient 1-2 Estac TroyesLigue 1

Lens

Lens come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Lyon. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Monaco.

WLens 2-1 LyonLigue 1
LMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
DLe Mans 2-2 LensLigue 1
WSlavia Praha 2-3 LensUEFA Champions League
LLens 0-1 LorientLigue 1

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Estac Troyes at 23% to win and Lens at 47%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Lens win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lens Win	47%	52%	@ 1.80
Draw	30%	25%	@ 3.80
Estac Troyes Win	23%	23%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lens or Draw at 1.22 (75% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lens or Draw	75%	77%	@ 1.22
Estac Troyes or Draw	50%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	70%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 2.5	52%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 2.5	48%	40%	@ 2.38
Over 3.5	30%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	24%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	44%	39%	@ 2.38

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Estac Troyes vs Lens?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 60%.

Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Lens?

Our model makes a Lens win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Lens.

What is the predicted score for Estac Troyes vs Lens?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.31 for Estac Troyes and 1.43 for Lens. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Estac Troyes and Lens play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.