vs
⚽ Ligue 1
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Estac Troyes face Paris FC in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Paris FC win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 10.7% | 12.5% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Paris FC with a +0.75 start at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Paris FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.15 (+12.5% model value).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Estac Troyes come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Chasselay MDA. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DEstac Troyes 1-1 PanetolikosFriendlies Clubs
- DAuxerre 1-1 Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs
- WEstac Troyes 5-2 Chasselay MDAFriendlies Clubs
- WGrenoble 0-3 Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs
- WEstac Troyes 1-0 RED Star FC 93Friendlies Clubs
Paris FC come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Reims. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Angers.
- LAngers 3-2 Paris FCFriendlies Clubs
- DVfB Stuttgart 2-2 Paris FCFriendlies Clubs
- WParis FC 1-0 ReimsFriendlies Clubs
- WParis FC 2-1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- LRennes 2-1 Paris FCLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- I. BouraInjury
- A. FatahHamstring Injury
- J. IkoneHamstring Injury
- E. MbembaNot in squad
- N. SanguiInjury
- O. SissokoAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Estac Troyes at 19% to win and Paris FC at 42%, with the draw at 38%. Our model makes a Paris FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 38% | @ 3.50 | +34.3% |
| Paris FC Win | 42% | @ 2.48 | +5.2% |
| Estac Troyes Win | 19% | @ 2.64 | -49.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paris FC or Draw at 1.45 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC or Draw | 74% | @ 1.45 | +7.6% |
| Estac Troyes or Draw | 51% | @ 1.53 | -22.0% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 27% | @ 4.20 | +13.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | @ 2.15 | +12.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 74% | @ 1.45 | +7.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | @ 1.22 | -11.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | @ 1.67 | -20.4% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | @ 2.70 | -29.9% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 48% | @ 2.35 | +12.5% |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | @ 1.53 | -20.2% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Estac Troyes or Paris FC is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC -1 | 37% | @ 3.33 | +23.8% |
| Paris FC -1.75 | 22% | @ 5.50 | +18.9% |
| Paris FC -1.25 | 31% | @ 3.75 | +17.2% |
| Paris FC -0.75 | 43% | @ 2.56 | +10.3% |
| Paris FC -0.5 | 49% | @ 2.19 | +7.4% |
| Paris FC -0.25 | 55% | @ 1.93 | +6.5% |
| Paris FC +0.5 | 74% | @ 1.38 | +2.0% |
| Paris FC 0 | 62% | @ 1.64 | +1.0% |
| Paris FC +1.5 | 90% | @ 1.11 | +0.2% |
| Paris FC -1.5 | 25% | @ 3.95 | +0.1% |
| Paris FC +0.25 | 68% | 1.46 | -1.2% |
| Paris FC +0.75 | 78% | 1.25 | -2.2% |
| Paris FC +1.25 | 86% | 1.12 | -3.4% |
| Paris FC +1 | 82% | 1.17 | -3.8% |
| Estac Troyes +1.5 | 75% | 1.22 | -9.3% |
| Estac Troyes +1.75 | 78% | 1.15 | -9.9% |
| Estac Troyes -0.25 | 32% | 2.77 | -10.9% |
| Estac Troyes -0.75 | 22% | 4.04 | -12.1% |
| Estac Troyes +1.25 | 69% | 1.27 | -12.4% |
| Estac Troyes 0 | 38% | 2.28 | -12.6% |
| Estac Troyes +0.25 | 45% | 1.95 | -13.1% |
| Estac Troyes +0.75 | 57% | 1.52 | -13.5% |
| Estac Troyes +0.5 | 51% | 1.65 | -15.7% |
| Estac Troyes +1 | 63% | 1.33 | -16.1% |
| Estac Troyes -1.25 | 14% | 6.00 | -17.6% |
| Estac Troyes -1.5 | 10% | 6.60 | -35.8% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 43% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 46% |
Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.
Expected goals: 1.07 for the home side, 1.57 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Our main pick is Paris FC with a +0.75 start at odds 1.25, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.15 (+12.5% value).
Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Our model makes a Paris FC win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC.
What is the predicted score for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.41 for Estac Troyes and 1.17 for Paris FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Estac Troyes and Paris FC play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.