Sun 11 Oct14:45Upcoming

⚽ Eredivisie

Excelsior vs Groningen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Excelsior vs Groningen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 14:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Excelsior face Groningen in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 14:45 UTC. Recent form: Excelsior have 2 wins from their last 5, while Groningen have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Excelsior won 1, Groningen won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Excelsior win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.7-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Excelsior vs Groningen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Excelsior or Draw @ 1.50

66%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.70 – 1.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.7%	6.4%	4.3%	1.9%	0.7%
1	8.1%	10.9%	7.3%	3.3%	1.1%
2	6.8%	9.2%	6.2%	2.8%	0.9%
3	3.9%	5.2%	3.5%	1.6%	0.5%
4	1.6%	2.2%	1.5%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Excelsior winDrawGroningen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Excelsior vs Groningen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Excelsior or Draw at odds 1.50, with a 66% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Excelsior win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Excelsior 39%Draw 26%Groningen 35%

39%26%35%

39%

Excelsior Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Excelsior and Groningen. Wins shown from Excelsior’s perspective: Excelsior 1 · Groningen 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-02	Groningen	2 – 3	Excelsior	W
2025-12-05	Excelsior	0 – 2	Groningen	L

📈 Recent form

Excelsior

Excelsior come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Utrecht.

DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
LExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
WWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie

Groningen

Groningen come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 11. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to PEC Zwolle. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Fortuna Sittard.

WGroningen 3-0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
DGo Ahead Eagles 1-1 GroningenEredivisie
DGroningen 2-2 TwenteEredivisie
LGroningen 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
LPSV Eindhoven 5-1 GroningenEredivisie

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Excelsior at 39% to win and Groningen at 35%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Excelsior win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Excelsior Win	39%	37%	@ 2.55
Groningen Win	35%	37%	@ 2.55
Draw	26%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Excelsior or Draw at 1.50 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Excelsior or Draw	66%	63%	@ 1.50
Groningen or Draw	61%	63%	@ 1.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	64%	59%	@ 1.57
Over 2.5	59%	61%	@ 1.53
Under 2.5	41%	39%	@ 2.40
Over 3.5	36%	41%	@ 2.25
Under 1.5	19%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	39%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

Excelsior 37%Draw 26%Groningen 37%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Excelsior vs Groningen?

Our model's main pick is Excelsior or Draw at odds 1.50, with a 66% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 63%.

Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Groningen?

Our model makes an Excelsior win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline for Excelsior vs Groningen.

What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Groningen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.70 for Excelsior and 1.35 for Groningen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Excelsior and Groningen play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 14:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.