FC Thun

Thu 27 Aug2-2Finished

Lech Poznan

⚽ UEFA Europa League

FC Thun vs Lech Poznan Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FC Thun vs Lech Poznan in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: FC Thun 2-2 Lech Poznan

FC Thun vs Lech Poznan finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

FC Thun face Lech Poznan in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Lech Poznan won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lech Poznan win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FC Thun vs Lech Poznan with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

FC Thun +1.25 @ 1.27

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.64 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	7.0%	4.1%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.9%	11.6%	6.8%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.1%	9.5%	5.5%	2.2%	0.6%
3	4.4%	5.2%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.1%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

FC Thun winDrawLech Poznan win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for FC Thun vs Lech Poznan comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is FC Thun with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lech Poznan win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

FC Thun 36%Draw 24%Lech Poznan 39%

36%24%39%

39%

Lech Poznan Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between FC Thun and Lech Poznan. Wins shown from FC Thun’s perspective: 1 drawn · Lech Poznan 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-27	FC Thun	2 – 2	Lech Poznan	D
2026-08-20	Lech Poznan	7 – 0	FC Thun	L

📈 Recent form

FC Thun

FC Thun come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at FC Vaduz. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Grasshoppers.

WFC Vaduz 1-2 FC ThunSuper League
LFC Thun 0-1 GrasshoppersSuper League
LFC Sion 3-2 FC ThunSuper League
DFC Thun 0-0 LausanneSuper League
WFC St. Gallen 3-4 FC ThunSuper League

Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Radomiak Radom. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Crystal Palace.

WLech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
LCrystal Palace 4-0 Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League
LGornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
WLech Poznan 1-0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
WLech Poznan 2-1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices FC Thun at 36% to win and Lech Poznan at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Lech Poznan win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lech Poznan Win	39%	43%	@ 2.17
FC Thun Win	36%	32%	@ 2.88
Draw	24%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lech Poznan or Draw at 1.35 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lech Poznan or Draw	65%	68%	@ 1.35
FC Thun or Draw	62%	57%	@ 1.60

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	81%	@ 1.14
Under 3.5	69%	61%	@ 1.52
Over 2.5	53%	61%	@ 1.52
Under 2.5	47%	39%	@ 2.33
Over 3.5	31%	39%	@ 2.33
Under 1.5	23%	19%	@ 4.90

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	62%	@ 1.47
BTTS No	44%	38%	@ 2.45

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when FC Thun or Lech Poznan is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lech Poznan +1.75	87%	86%	1.10
FC Thun +1.75	86%	81%	1.17
Lech Poznan +1.5	85%	82%	1.16
FC Thun +1.5	83%	76%	@ 1.24
Lech Poznan +1.25	80%	80%	1.18
FC Thun +1.25	78%	74%	1.27
Lech Poznan +1	75%	–	1.23
FC Thun +1	72%	72%	1.32
Lech Poznan +0.75	70%	72%	1.32
FC Thun +0.75	67%	63%	@ 1.50
Lech Poznan +0.5	65%	66%	1.42
FC Thun +0.5	62%	56%	@ 1.69
Lech Poznan +0.25	58%	61%	1.55
FC Thun +0.25	55%	52%	@ 1.83
Lech Poznan 0	52%	54%	1.73
FC Thun 0	48%	46%	@ 2.07
Lech Poznan -0.25	45%	48%	1.99
FC Thun -0.25	42%	39%	@ 2.42
Lech Poznan -0.5	38%	44%	2.12
FC Thun -0.5	35%	34%	2.71
Lech Poznan -0.75	33%	37%	2.56
FC Thun -0.75	30%	28%	@ 3.32
Lech Poznan -1	28%	28%	3.31
Lech Poznan -1.25	23%	26%	3.63
FC Thun -1.25	20%	20%	4.65
Lech Poznan -1.5	17%	24%	3.90
FC Thun -1.5	15%	18%	5.25
Lech Poznan -1.75	14%	19%	5.00
FC Thun -1.75	13%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

FC Thun 34%Draw 24%Lech Poznan 42%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Thun vs Lech Poznan?

Our model's main pick is FC Thun with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for FC Thun vs Lech Poznan?

Our model makes a Lech Poznan win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for FC Thun vs Lech Poznan.

What is the predicted score for FC Thun vs Lech Poznan?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.64 for FC Thun and 1.17 for Lech Poznan. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do FC Thun and Lech Poznan play?

Kick-off is Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.