⚽ UEFA Europa League

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

FK Crvena Zvezda face Plzen in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 0.7-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.42

94%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.74 – 0.73 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	23.0%	16.8%	6.1%	1.5%	0.3%
1	17.0%	12.4%	4.5%	1.1%	0.2%
2	6.3%	4.6%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
3	1.6%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
4	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-0

FK Crvena Zvezda winDrawPlzen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 94%. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (82%), both teams to score points no (74%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.05 (+67.3% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 2.05, 82% model probability, +67.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

FK Crvena Zvezda 34%Draw 35%Plzen 31%

34%35%31%

35%

Draw

82%

Under 2.5 goals

74%

BTTS no

+67.3%

Best value: Under 2.5

📈 Recent form

FK Crvena Zvezda

FK Crvena Zvezda come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Larne. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Hapoel Beer Sheva.

LFK Crvena Zvezda 0-2 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Champions League
WFK Crvena Zvezda 2-0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
LHapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Champions League
WFK Crvena Zvezda 5-0 LarneUEFA Champions League
WFK Crvena Zvezda 3-1 VojvodinaSuper Liga

Plzen

Plzen come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 11. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Polessya. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to Slovan Liberec.

WPlzen 3-2 ZlinCzech Liga
DTeplice 5-5 PlzenCzech Liga
DPlzen 1-1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
LPlzen 1-3 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
WPlzen 2-0 PolessyaFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices FK Crvena Zvezda at 34% to win and Plzen at 31%, with the draw at 35%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	35%	@ 3.65	+29.2%
Plzen Win	31%	@ 3.95	+20.9%
FK Crvena Zvezda Win	34%	@ 1.84	-37.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Plzen or Draw at 1.91 (62% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Plzen or Draw	62%	@ 1.91	+17.5%
FK Crvena Zvezda or Draw	65%	@ 1.22	-20.8%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.7-0.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 82% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	57%	@ 3.90	+121.5%
Under 2.5	82%	@ 2.05	+67.3%
Under 3.5	94%	@ 1.42	+33.2%
Over 1.5	43%	@ 1.25	-46.0%
Over 2.5	18%	@ 1.75	-67.9%
Over 3.5	6%	@ 2.85	-82.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 74%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	74%	@ 2.10	+55.0%
BTTS Yes	26%	@ 1.62	-57.5%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	38%
Dixon-Coles	Draw	40%
GradientBoosting	Home	36%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.33 for the home side, 1.26 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-0 (30%), 0-1 (22%), 1-0 (17%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 94% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.05 (+67.3% value).

Who is the favourite for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 0.7-0.7 scoreline for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen.

What is the predicted score for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-0, based on expected goals of 0.74 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.73 for Plzen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do FK Crvena Zvezda and Plzen play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.