⚽ Brazilian Série A

Flamengo vs Botafogo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Flamengo vs Botafogo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Flamengo face Botafogo in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Flamengo have 2 wins from their last 5, while Botafogo have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Flamengo won 1, Botafogo won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Flamengo vs Botafogo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.42

70%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.59 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	7.4%	4.3%	1.7%	0.5%
1	10.1%	11.8%	6.9%	2.7%	0.8%
2	8.0%	9.4%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.2%	5.0%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.7%	2.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Flamengo winDrawBotafogo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Botafogo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 70%. On the match result, the model rates a Flamengo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Botafogo or Draw at odds 2.65 (+42.2% model value).

Best value

Botafogo or Draw at odds 2.65, 54% model probability, +42.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Flamengo 45%Draw 28%Botafogo 27%

45%28%27%

45%

Flamengo Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

+42.2%

Best value: Botafogo or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Flamengo and Botafogo. Wins shown from Flamengo’s perspective: Flamengo 1 · Botafogo 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-08-18	Botafogo	4 – 1	Flamengo	L
2024-04-28	Flamengo	0 – 2	Botafogo	L
2023-09-03	Botafogo	1 – 2	Flamengo	W
2023-04-30	Flamengo	2 – 3	Botafogo	L

📈 Recent form

Flamengo

Flamengo come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at Mirassol. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Cruzeiro.

LCruzeiro 2-1 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
WFlamengo 2-1 CruzeiroCONMEBOL Libertadores
WMirassol 1-5 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
DCruzeiro 1-1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
WFlamengo 2-0 VitoriaBrazilian Série A

Botafogo

Botafogo come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Cienciano. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Atletico Paranaense.

LBotafogo 2-3 Atletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 1-0 CiencianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LVitoria 1-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
LCienciano 6-1 BotafogoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WCruzeiro 0-1 BotafogoBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Flamengo at 45% to win and Botafogo at 27%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Botafogo Win	27%	@ 6.75	+79.5%
Draw	28%	@ 4.33	+23.4%
Flamengo Win	45%	@ 1.45	-34.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 2.65 (54% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Botafogo or Draw	54%	@ 2.65	+42.2%
Flamengo or Draw	72%	@ 1.10	-20.8%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	48%	@ 2.10	+0.6%
Under 3.5	70%	@ 1.42	-0.5%
Under 1.5	24%	@ 4.00	-4.8%
Over 1.5	76%	@ 1.22	-7.0%
Over 2.5	52%	@ 1.73	-9.9%
Over 3.5	30%	@ 2.80	-16.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	55%	@ 1.85	+1.4%
BTTS No	45%	@ 1.85	-16.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Flamengo vs Botafogo?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 70% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Botafogo or Draw at 2.65 (+42.2% value).

Who is the favourite for Flamengo vs Botafogo?

Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Flamengo vs Botafogo.

What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Botafogo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.59 for Flamengo and 1.17 for Botafogo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Flamengo and Botafogo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.