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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Flamengo vs Fluminense Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Flamengo vs Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Flamengo face Fluminense in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC. Recent form: Flamengo have 5 wins from their last 5, while Fluminense have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Flamengo won 2, Fluminense won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 1.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Flamengo vs Fluminense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.86 – 0.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	5.7%	2.8%	0.9%	0.2%
1	10.8%	10.7%	5.3%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.0%	9.9%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	6.2%	6.1%	3.0%	1.0%	0.2%
4	2.9%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Flamengo winDrawFluminense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Fluminense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Flamengo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Flamengo 55%Draw 28%Fluminense 18%

55%28%18%

55%

Flamengo Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Flamengo and Fluminense. Wins shown from Flamengo’s perspective: Flamengo 2 · 2 drawn · Fluminense 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-12	Fluminense	1 – 2	Flamengo	W
2024-10-17	Flamengo	0 – 2	Fluminense	L
2024-06-23	Fluminense	0 – 1	Flamengo	W
2023-11-11	Flamengo	1 – 1	Fluminense	D
2023-07-16	Fluminense	0 – 0	Flamengo	D

📈 Recent form

Flamengo

Flamengo come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Independiente del Valle. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WFlamengo 2-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
DFlamengo 1-1 Independiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores
WFlamengo 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
WIndependiente del Valle 0-2 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
WRemo 0-1 FlamengoBrazilian Série A

Fluminense

Fluminense come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Platense.

WCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LPlatense 2-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
LAtlético Mineiro 3-1 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
WFluminense 2-0 PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
WFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Flamengo at 55% to win and Fluminense at 18%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Flamengo Win	55%	68%	@ 1.36
Draw	28%	21%	@ 4.50
Fluminense Win	18%	11%	@ 8.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Flamengo or Draw at 1.08 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Flamengo or Draw	80%	89%	@ 1.08
Fluminense or Draw	43%	32%	@ 3.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	68%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	54%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	46%	45%	@ 2.08
Over 3.5	32%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	22%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	47%	@ 2.00
BTTS No	47%	53%	@ 1.75

📈 How the market moved

Flamengo 68%Draw 21%Fluminense 11%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Flamengo vs Fluminense?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Flamengo vs Fluminense?

Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline for Flamengo vs Fluminense.

What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Fluminense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.86 for Flamengo and 0.99 for Fluminense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Flamengo and Fluminense play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.