Fri 16 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Serie A

Frosinone vs Sassuolo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Frosinone vs Sassuolo in the Serie A. Kick-off Friday 16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Frosinone face Sassuolo in the Serie A, kicking off Friday 16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Frosinone have 3 wins from their last 5, while Sassuolo have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Frosinone won 1, Sassuolo won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Frosinone win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.9-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Frosinone vs Sassuolo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Frosinone or Draw @ 1.44

69%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.91 – 1.30 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.0%	5.2%	3.4%	1.5%	0.5%
1	7.7%	10.0%	6.5%	2.8%	0.9%
2	7.4%	9.6%	6.2%	2.7%	0.9%
3	4.7%	6.1%	4.0%	1.7%	0.6%
4	2.2%	2.9%	1.9%	0.8%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Frosinone winDrawSassuolo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Frosinone vs Sassuolo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Frosinone or Draw at odds 1.44, with a 69% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Frosinone win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (62%).

📊 Key numbers

Frosinone 40%Draw 31%Sassuolo 29%

40%31%29%

40%

Frosinone Win

62%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Frosinone and Sassuolo. Wins shown from Frosinone’s perspective: Frosinone 1 · 1 drawn · Sassuolo 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-02	Sassuolo	1 – 1	Frosinone	D
2024-03-09	Sassuolo	1 – 0	Frosinone	L
2023-09-17	Frosinone	4 – 2	Sassuolo	W

📈 Recent form

Frosinone

Frosinone come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Como. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Napoli.

LNapoli 3-0 FrosinoneSerie A
WFrosinone 2-0 ComoSerie A
DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A
WFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
DSassuolo 1-1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia

Sassuolo

Sassuolo come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Juventus. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Monza.

DSassuolo 1-1 AC MilanSerie A
LMonza 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
WSassuolo 3-2 JuventusSerie A
DBologna 2-2 SassuoloSerie A
DSassuolo 1-1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Frosinone

No absentees reported.

Sassuolo

I. KonéBroken Leg
E. PieragnoloJumpers Knee
Fali CandéJumpers Knee
D. BolocaMuscle Bruise
Y. PazJumpers Knee

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Frosinone at 40% to win and Sassuolo at 29%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Frosinone win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Frosinone Win	40%	38%	@ 2.45
Draw	31%	26%	@ 3.60
Sassuolo Win	29%	36%	@ 2.62

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Frosinone or Draw at 1.44 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Frosinone or Draw	69%	64%	@ 1.44
Sassuolo or Draw	57%	62%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	62%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 3.5	60%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	40%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 2.5	38%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	17%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	62%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	38%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

Frosinone 38%Draw 26%Sassuolo 35%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

Our model's pick is Frosinone or Draw at odds 1.44, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.

Who is the favourite for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

Our model makes a Frosinone win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.3 scoreline for Frosinone vs Sassuolo.

What is the predicted score for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.91 for Frosinone and 1.30 for Sassuolo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Frosinone and Sassuolo play?

Kick-off is Friday 16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.