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⚽ Serie A

Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Genoa vs Fiorentina in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Genoa face Fiorentina in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Genoa have no wins from their last 5, while Fiorentina have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Fiorentina won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fiorentina win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.2-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Genoa vs Fiorentina with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.33

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.24 – 1.38 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	10.0%	6.9%	3.2%	1.1%
1	9.0%	12.5%	8.6%	4.0%	1.4%
2	5.6%	7.7%	5.3%	2.5%	0.8%
3	2.3%	3.2%	2.2%	1.0%	0.3%
4	0.7%	1.0%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Genoa winDrawFiorentina win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Genoa vs Fiorentina comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Fiorentina win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Genoa 30%Draw 30%Fiorentina 40%

30%30%40%

40%

Fiorentina Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Genoa and Fiorentina. Wins shown from Genoa’s perspective: 3 drawn · Fiorentina 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-10	Fiorentina	0 – 0	Genoa	D
2025-11-09	Genoa	2 – 2	Fiorentina	D
2025-02-02	Fiorentina	2 – 1	Genoa	L
2024-10-31	Genoa	0 – 1	Fiorentina	L
2024-04-15	Fiorentina	1 – 1	Genoa	D

📈 Recent form

Genoa

Genoa come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Sudtirol. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Rapid.

LRapid 2-0 GenoaFriendlies Clubs
LParma 2-1 GenoaSerie A
WGenoa 1-0 SudtirolCoppa Italia
DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A
LGenoa 1-4 ComoSerie A

Fiorentina

Fiorentina come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Pisa. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Torino.

DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
WFiorentina 3-0 PisaCoppa Italia
WVenezia 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A
LFiorentina 1-2 TorinoSerie A
LFiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Genoa

L. ColomboAnkle Injury
F. MeichtryMuscle Injury
L. VenturinoKnee Injury
E. HavelAnkle Injury

Fiorentina

F. ParisiKnee Injury
R. SottilBack Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Genoa at 30% to win and Fiorentina at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Fiorentina win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fiorentina Win	40%	40%	@ 2.30
Genoa Win	30%	31%	@ 3.00
Draw	30%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fiorentina or Draw at 1.36 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fiorentina or Draw	68%	69%	@ 1.36
Genoa or Draw	58%	60%	@ 1.57

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 3.5	73%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	51%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 2.5	49%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	27%	25%	@ 3.75
Under 1.5	26%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	47%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Genoa 30%Draw 29%Fiorentina 41%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Our model makes a Fiorentina win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline for Genoa vs Fiorentina.

What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Fiorentina?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.24 for Genoa and 1.38 for Fiorentina. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Genoa and Fiorentina play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.