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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Grêmio vs Internacional Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Grêmio vs Internacional in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Grêmio face Internacional in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC. Recent form: Grêmio have 1 win from their last 5, while Internacional have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Grêmio won 1, Internacional won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Internacional win the most likely result at 33%, projecting a 1.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Grêmio vs Internacional with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.23 – 1.12 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.5%	10.7%	6.0%	2.2%	0.6%
1	11.7%	13.1%	7.4%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.2%	8.1%	4.5%	1.7%	0.5%
3	3.0%	3.3%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Grêmio winDrawInternacional win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Internacional comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Internacional win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 33%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Grêmio 33%Draw 33%Internacional 33%

33%33%33%

33%

Internacional Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Grêmio and Internacional. Wins shown from Grêmio’s perspective: Grêmio 1 · 2 drawn · Internacional 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-03	Grêmio	3 – 1	Internacional	W
2026-08-27	Internacional	0 – 0	Grêmio	D
2026-04-11	Internacional	0 – 0	Grêmio	D
2024-10-19	Internacional	1 – 0	Grêmio	L
2024-06-22	Grêmio	0 – 1	Internacional	L

📈 Recent form

Grêmio

Grêmio come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Botafogo.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
LVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
WGrêmio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil

Internacional

Internacional come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Chapecoense. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at São Paulo.

LSão Paulo 1-0 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
WChapecoense 1-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
LInternacional 2-3 SantosBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil
LBahia 3-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Grêmio at 33% to win and Internacional at 33%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes an Internacional win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Internacional Win	33%	32%	@ 2.90
Draw	33%	28%	@ 3.30
Grêmio Win	33%	40%	@ 2.35

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Internacional or Draw at 1.57 (63% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Internacional or Draw	63%	60%	@ 1.57
Grêmio or Draw	63%	68%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	73%	@ 1.30
Over 1.5	68%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	58%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 2.5	42%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	32%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	21%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS Yes	48%	52%	@ 1.80

📈 How the market moved

Grêmio 37%Draw 29%Internacional 34%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Grêmio vs Internacional?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Grêmio vs Internacional?

Our model makes an Internacional win the most likely result at 33%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline for Grêmio vs Internacional.

What is the predicted score for Grêmio vs Internacional?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.23 for Grêmio and 1.12 for Internacional. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Grêmio and Internacional play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.