Sun 18 Oct14:45Upcoming

⚽ Eredivisie

Groningen vs Ajax Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Groningen vs Ajax in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Groningen face Ajax in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:45 UTC. Recent form: Groningen have 2 wins from their last 5, while Ajax have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Groningen won 1, Ajax won 3, 1 drawn. The bookmaker market makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 55%, implying a 1.4-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Groningen vs Ajax with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Groningen win	23%
Draw	22%
Ajax win	55%
Over 2.5 goals	67%
Both teams to score	64%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.35 – 2.15 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.0%	6.5%	7.0%	5.0%	2.7%
1	4.1%	8.8%	9.4%	6.8%	3.6%
2	2.8%	5.9%	6.4%	4.6%	2.4%
3	1.2%	2.7%	2.9%	2.1%	1.1%
4	0.4%	0.9%	1.0%	0.7%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-2

Groningen winDrawAjax win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Groningen vs Ajax. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Ajax win is the most likely result at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 67%. Both teams to score: yes at 64%.

📊 Key numbers

Groningen 23%Draw 22%Ajax 55%

23%22%55%

55%

Ajax Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Groningen and Ajax. Wins shown from Groningen’s perspective: Groningen 1 · 1 drawn · Ajax 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-21	Ajax	2 – 0	Groningen	L
2026-03-07	Groningen	3 – 1	Ajax	W
2025-12-02	Ajax	2 – 0	Groningen	L
2025-05-14	Groningen	2 – 2	Ajax	D
2024-10-06	Ajax	3 – 1	Groningen	L

📈 Recent form

Groningen

Groningen come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at Excelsior. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Fortuna Sittard.

WExcelsior 1-5 GroningenEredivisie
WGroningen 3-0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
DGo Ahead Eagles 1-1 GroningenEredivisie
DGroningen 2-2 TwenteEredivisie
LGroningen 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie

Ajax

Ajax come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

DAjax 1-1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
LAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Groningen at 23% to win and Ajax at 55%, with the draw at 22%. The bookmaker market makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Ajax Win	55%	@ 1.70
Groningen Win	23%	@ 4.10
Draw	22%	@ 4.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ajax or Draw at 1.22 (77% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Ajax or Draw	77%	@ 1.22
Groningen or Draw	45%	@ 2.10

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.4-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	@ 1.10
Over 2.5	67%	@ 1.40
Under 3.5	51%	@ 1.80
Over 3.5	49%	@ 1.91
Under 2.5	33%	@ 2.88
Under 1.5	14%	@ 7.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	35%	@ 2.62

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Groningen vs Ajax?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Ajax win is the most likely result at 55%.

Who is the favourite for Groningen vs Ajax?

Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 1.4-2.1 scoreline for Groningen vs Ajax.

What is the predicted score for Groningen vs Ajax?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Groningen and 2.15 for Ajax. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Groningen and Ajax play?

Kick-off is Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.