⚽ Eredivisie
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Result: Groningen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard finished 2-3. Fortuna Sittard won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Groningen face Fortuna Sittard in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Groningen won 2, Fortuna Sittard won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Groningen win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.8-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.3% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Fortuna Sittard with a +2 start at odds 1.28, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Groningen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard. Wins shown from Groningen’s perspective: Groningen 2 · Fortuna Sittard 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Groningen | 2 – 3 | Fortuna Sittard | L |
| 2026-01-25 | Groningen | 1 – 2 | Fortuna Sittard | L |
| 2025-10-25 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 – 2 | Groningen | W |
| 2025-03-16 | Groningen | 1 – 0 | Fortuna Sittard | W |
| 2024-10-26 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 – 0 | Groningen | L |
📈 Recent form
Groningen come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 11. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to PEC Zwolle. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Fortuna Sittard.
- WGroningen 3-0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- DGo Ahead Eagles 1-1 GroningenEredivisie
- DGroningen 2-2 TwenteEredivisie
- LGroningen 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- LPSV Eindhoven 5-1 GroningenEredivisie
Fortuna Sittard come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Willem II. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at home to Ajax.
- WWillem II 0-1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- LFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
- WADO Den Haag 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- WGroningen 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- LFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. JengLeg Injury
- T. MerceraInjury
- R. MetuInjury
- M. RenteInjury
- R. BayramKnee Injury
- K. PetersonNot in squad
- O. RomenySuspended (red card)
- S. SimonsHamstring Injury
- I. MarquezInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Groningen at 48% to win and Fortuna Sittard at 24%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Groningen win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen Win | 48% | 60% | @ 1.55 |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | @ 4.30 |
| Fortuna Sittard Win | 24% | 18% | @ 5.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Groningen or Draw at 1.15 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen or Draw | 75% | 82% | @ 1.15 |
| Fortuna Sittard or Draw | 50% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 83% | @ 1.13 |
| Under 3.5 | 67% | 58% | @ 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | 17% | @ 5.60 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 60% | @ 1.55 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 40% | @ 2.30 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Groningen or Fortuna Sittard is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard +2 | 82% | 74% | @ 1.28 |
| Groningen +0.75 | 78% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Fortuna Sittard +1.75 | 78% | 67% | @ 1.43 |
| Groningen +0.5 | 75% | 81% | 1.15 |
| Fortuna Sittard +1.5 | 74% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Fortuna Sittard +1.25 | 68% | 56% | @ 1.70 |
| Groningen +0.25 | 68% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Fortuna Sittard +1 | 62% | 49% | @ 1.93 |
| Groningen 0 | 62% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Fortuna Sittard +0.75 | 56% | 44% | @ 2.19 |
| Groningen -0.25 | 56% | 68% | 1.41 |
| Fortuna Sittard +0.5 | 50% | 39% | @ 2.43 |
| Groningen -0.5 | 50% | 61% | 1.53 |
| Fortuna Sittard +0.25 | 44% | 32% | @ 2.94 |
| Groningen -0.75 | 44% | 56% | 1.70 |
| Fortuna Sittard 0 | 38% | 24% | @ 4.04 |
| Groningen -1 | 38% | 51% | 1.88 |
| Groningen -1.25 | 32% | 44% | 2.18 |
| Fortuna Sittard -0.25 | 32% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
| Groningen -1.5 | 26% | 40% | 2.33 |
| Fortuna Sittard -0.5 | 25% | 19% | @ 4.90 |
| Groningen -1.75 | 22% | 33% | 2.84 |
| Fortuna Sittard -0.75 | 21% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Groningen -2 | 18% | 26% | 3.67 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model's main pick is Fortuna Sittard with a +2 start at odds 1.28, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model makes a Groningen win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard.
What is the predicted score for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.82 for Groningen and 1.06 for Fortuna Sittard. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Groningen and Fortuna Sittard play?
Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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