⚽ Eredivisie

Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Groningen face Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Groningen won 2, Fortuna Sittard won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Groningen win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.8-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.65

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.82 – 1.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.6%	6.0%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%
1	10.2%	10.8%	5.7%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.3%	9.9%	5.2%	1.8%	0.5%
3	5.6%	6.0%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%
4	2.6%	2.7%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Groningen winDrawFortuna Sittard win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.65, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Groningen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Fortuna Sittard or Draw at odds 2.55 (+28.8% model value).

Best value

Fortuna Sittard or Draw at odds 2.55, 50% model probability, +28.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Groningen 48%Draw 28%Fortuna Sittard 24%

48%28%24%

48%

Groningen Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

+28.8%

Best value: Fortuna Sittard or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard. Wins shown from Groningen’s perspective: Groningen 2 · Fortuna Sittard 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-25	Groningen	1 – 2	Fortuna Sittard	L
2025-10-25	Fortuna Sittard	1 – 2	Groningen	W
2025-03-16	Groningen	1 – 0	Fortuna Sittard	W
2024-10-26	Fortuna Sittard	1 – 0	Groningen	L

📈 Recent form

Groningen

Groningen come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at ADO Den Haag. Their only defeat in that run was 1-5 at PSV Eindhoven.

LPSV Eindhoven 5-1 GroningenEredivisie
WADO Den Haag 1-4 GroningenEredivisie
WGroningen 2-1 UtrechtEredivisie
WGroningen 1-0 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
DGroningen 0-0 Volos NFCFriendlies Clubs

Fortuna Sittard

Fortuna Sittard come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Cambuur. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to AZ Alkmaar.

LFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 3-1 CambuurEredivisie
DPSV Eindhoven 2-2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 2-1 Apoel NicosiaFriendlies Clubs
LMetz 3-1 Fortuna SittardFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Groningen

M. JengLeg Injury
T. MerceraInjury
R. MetuInjury
M. RenteInjury

Fortuna Sittard

R. BayramKnee Injury
K. PetersonNot in squad
O. RomenySuspended (red card)
S. SimonsHamstring Injury
I. MarquezInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Groningen at 48% to win and Fortuna Sittard at 24%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Groningen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Fortuna Sittard Win	24%	@ 5.50	+32.3%
Draw	28%	@ 4.70	+30.5%
Groningen Win	48%	@ 1.48	-28.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fortuna Sittard or Draw at 2.55 (50% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Fortuna Sittard or Draw	50%	@ 2.55	+28.8%
Groningen or Draw	75%	@ 1.14	-15.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	22%	@ 5.50	+19.8%
Under 2.5	45%	@ 2.65	+19.4%
Under 3.5	67%	@ 1.65	+11.2%
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.14	-10.8%
Over 2.5	55%	@ 1.48	-18.7%
Over 3.5	33%	@ 2.20	-28.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	45%	@ 2.25	+1.4%
BTTS Yes	55%	@ 1.57	-13.8%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.65, with 67% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Fortuna Sittard or Draw at 2.55 (+28.8% value).

Who is the favourite for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?

Our model makes a Groningen win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.1 scoreline for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard.

What is the predicted score for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.82 for Groningen and 1.06 for Fortuna Sittard. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Groningen and Fortuna Sittard play?

Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.