⚽ UEFA Europa League

Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Heart Of Midlothian face Benfica in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 0.9-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.65

90%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.95 – 0.81 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	17.2%	13.9%	5.6%	1.5%	0.3%
1	16.3%	13.2%	5.4%	1.4%	0.3%
2	7.8%	6.3%	2.5%	0.7%	0.1%
3	2.5%	2.0%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
4	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-0

Heart Of Midlothian winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.65, the selection our model is most confident in at 90%. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (74%), both teams to score points no (66%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.65 (+96.4% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 2.65, 74% model probability, +96.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Heart Of Midlothian 23%Draw 25%Benfica 52%

23%25%52%

52%

Benfica Win

74%

Under 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS no

+96.4%

Best value: Under 2.5

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Heart Of Midlothian at 23% to win and Benfica at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Heart Of Midlothian Win	23%	6.25	+41.6%
Draw	25%	4.85	+22.7%
Benfica Win	52%	1.42	-26.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Heart Of Midlothian or Draw at 2.75 (48% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Heart Of Midlothian or Draw	48%	2.75	+30.7%
Benfica or Draw	77%	1.11	-14.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 74% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	48%	5.50	+161.2%
Under 2.5	74%	2.65	+96.4%
Under 3.5	90%	1.65	+48.1%
Over 1.5	52%	1.14	-40.1%
Over 2.5	26%	1.48	-61.7%
Over 3.5	10%	2.20	-77.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	66%	2.10	+38.3%
BTTS Yes	34%	1.62	-44.7%

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Heart Of Midlothian or Benfica is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Heart Of Midlothian 0	35%	5.25	+85.3%
Heart Of Midlothian -0.25	29%	5.75	+67.8%
Heart Of Midlothian +0.25	41%	3.52	+45.6%
Heart Of Midlothian +0.75	54%	2.50	+33.6%
Heart Of Midlothian +0.5	48%	2.77	+31.7%
Heart Of Midlothian +1	60%	2.20	+31.2%
Heart Of Midlothian +1.25	66%	1.92	+25.8%
Heart Of Midlothian +1.5	72%	1.69	+21.4%
Heart Of Midlothian +1.75	76%	1.55	+17.4%
Heart Of Midlothian +2	80%	1.39	+10.9%
Benfica +0.5	77%	1.11	-14.6%
Benfica +0.25	71%	1.14	-19.3%
Benfica -0.25	59%	1.29	-24.1%
Benfica 0	65%	1.16	-24.9%
Benfica -0.5	52%	1.40	-26.4%
Benfica -0.75	46%	1.51	-29.6%
Benfica -1	40%	1.65	-33.4%
Benfica -1.25	34%	1.90	-34.8%
Benfica -2	20%	2.94	-40.5%
Benfica -1.5	28%	2.09	-40.8%
Benfica -1.75	24%	2.42	-41.3%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	37%
GradientBoosting	Away	59%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.01 for the home side, 1.66 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-0 (17%), 1-0 (16%), 0-1 (14%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.65, with 90% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.65 (+96.4% value).

Who is the favourite for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 0.9-0.8 scoreline for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-0, based on expected goals of 0.95 for Heart Of Midlothian and 0.81 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Heart Of Midlothian and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Thursday 13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.