⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

HNK Hajduk Split face Raków Częstochowa in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Raków Częstochowa win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 0.8-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.28

80%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.81 – 1.49 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	14.9%	11.1%	5.5%	2.1%
1	8.1%	12.1%	9.0%	4.5%	1.7%
2	3.3%	4.9%	3.7%	1.8%	0.7%
3	0.9%	1.3%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

HNK Hajduk Split winDrawRaków Częstochowa win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Raków Częstochowa win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Raków Częstochowa or Draw at odds 1.75 (+20.2% model value).

Best value

Raków Częstochowa or Draw at odds 1.75, 69% model probability, +20.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

HNK Hajduk Split 31%Draw 27%Raków Częstochowa 42%

31%27%42%

42%

Raków Częstochowa Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS no

+20.2%

Best value: Raków Częstochowa or Draw

📈 Recent form

HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Hajduk Split come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to FK Zalgiris Vilnius. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at NK Varazdin.

WHNK Gorica 1-2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
WHNK Hajduk Split 4-0 FK Zalgiris VilniusUEFA Europa Conference
DHNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Istra 1961HNL
WFK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-5 HNK Hajduk SplitUEFA Europa Conference
LNK Varazdin 2-1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL

Raków Częstochowa

Raków Częstochowa come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Valletta FC. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Cracovia Krakow.

LCracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
WHammarby FF 0-1 Raków CzęstochowaUEFA Europa Conference
DRaków Częstochowa 0-0 Hammarby FFUEFA Europa Conference
LSlask Wroclaw 2-1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
WValletta FC 0-4 Raków CzęstochowaUEFA Europa Conference

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices HNK Hajduk Split at 31% to win and Raków Częstochowa at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Raków Częstochowa win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Raków Częstochowa Win	42%	@ 3.65	+54.0%
Draw	27%	@ 3.35	-10.0%
HNK Hajduk Split Win	31%	@ 2.00	-38.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Raków Częstochowa or Draw at 1.75 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Raków Częstochowa or Draw	69%	@ 1.75	+20.2%
HNK Hajduk Split or Draw	57%	@ 1.25	-28.2%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.8-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	33%	@ 3.25	+7.5%
Under 2.5	60%	@ 1.80	+7.3%
Under 3.5	80%	@ 1.28	+2.3%
Over 1.5	67%	@ 1.33	-11.0%
Over 2.5	40%	@ 2.00	-19.2%
Over 3.5	20%	@ 3.50	-29.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	60%	@ 1.91	+15.7%
BTTS Yes	40%	@ 1.77	-30.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	35%
Dixon-Coles	Away	70%
GradientBoosting	Away	37%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.18 for the home side, 1.42 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 80% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Raków Częstochowa or Draw at 1.75 (+20.2% value).

Who is the favourite for HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa?

Our model makes a Raków Częstochowa win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 0.8-1.5 scoreline for HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa.

What is the predicted score for HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.81 for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.49 for Raków Częstochowa. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.