⚽ UEFA Europa League

Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Jagiellonia face Saburtalo in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 16:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Saburtalo win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.42

69%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.63 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	7.1%	4.2%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.9%	11.6%	6.8%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.1%	9.5%	5.5%	2.2%	0.6%
3	4.4%	5.1%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.1%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Jagiellonia winDrawSaburtalo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a Saburtalo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (56%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams to score at odds 2.00 (+11.0% model value).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 2.00, 56% model probability, +11.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Jagiellonia 18%Draw 36%Saburtalo 46%

18%36%46%

46%

Saburtalo Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

+11.0%

Best value: BTTS Yes

📈 Recent form

Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Rangers. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Widzew Łódź.

DRangers 1-1 JagielloniaUEFA Europa League
LJagiellonia 0-2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
WJagiellonia 2-1 RangersUEFA Europa League
WMotor Lublin 1-2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
WJagiellonia 1-0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa

Saburtalo

Saburtalo come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Margveti 2006. Their only defeat in that run was 3-4 at Torpedo Kutaisi.

LTorpedo Kutaisi 4-3 SaburtaloErovnuli Liga
DSaburtalo 1-1 LarneUEFA Europa League
DLarne 0-0 SaburtaloUEFA Europa League
DSlovan Bratislava 1-1 SaburtaloUEFA Champions League
WMargveti 2006 1-3 SaburtaloDavid Kipiani Cup

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Jagiellonia at 18% to win and Saburtalo at 46%, with the draw at 36%. Our model makes a Saburtalo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Saburtalo Win	46%	@ 10.00	+356.2%
Draw	36%	@ 4.50	+63.7%
Jagiellonia Win	18%	@ 1.34	-75.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Saburtalo or Draw at 3.10 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Saburtalo or Draw	76%	@ 3.10	+136.0%
Jagiellonia or Draw	48%	@ 1.05	-49.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	47%	@ 2.10	-1.4%
Under 3.5	69%	@ 1.42	-1.7%
Over 1.5	77%	@ 1.22	-6.2%
Under 1.5	23%	@ 4.00	-7.6%
Over 2.5	53%	@ 1.73	-8.2%
Over 3.5	31%	@ 2.80	-13.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	56%	@ 2.00	+11.0%
BTTS No	44%	@ 1.70	-24.3%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	48%
GradientBoosting	Away	52%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.03 for the home side, 1.63 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 69% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams to score at 2.00 (+11.0% value).

Who is the favourite for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?

Our model makes a Saburtalo win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo.

What is the predicted score for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.63 for Jagiellonia and 1.17 for Saburtalo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Jagiellonia and Saburtalo play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.