⚽ Serie A

Lecce vs AS Roma Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lecce vs AS Roma in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 31 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lecce face AS Roma in the Serie A, kicking off Monday 31 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Lecce have 4 wins from their last 5, while AS Roma have 5 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, AS Roma won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 57%, projecting a 0.7-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lecce vs AS Roma with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.40

68%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.74 – 1.61 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.5%	15.4%	12.4%	6.6%	2.7%
1	7.1%	11.4%	9.1%	4.9%	2.0%
2	2.6%	4.2%	3.4%	1.8%	0.7%
3	0.6%	1.0%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Lecce winDrawAS Roma win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lecce vs AS Roma is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates an AS Roma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 57%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (59%).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 1.67, 59% model probability, -1.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Lecce 17%Draw 26%AS Roma 57%

17%26%57%

57%

AS Roma Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS no

-1.8%

Best value: BTTS No

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lecce and AS Roma. Wins shown from Lecce’s perspective: 1 drawn · AS Roma 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-22	AS Roma	1 – 0	Lecce	L
2026-01-06	Lecce	0 – 2	AS Roma	L
2025-03-29	Lecce	0 – 1	AS Roma	L
2024-12-07	AS Roma	4 – 1	Lecce	L
2024-04-01	Lecce	0 – 0	AS Roma	D

📈 Recent form

Lecce

Lecce come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Bistrica. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Palermo.

WVenezia 0-2 LecceSerie A
LPalermo 2-0 LecceCoppa Italia
WLecce 1-0 SS MonopoliFriendlies Clubs
WLecce 5-2 BistricaFriendlies Clubs
DLecce 2-2 Istra 1961Friendlies Clubs

AS Roma

AS Roma come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Fiorentina. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Brighton.

WAS Roma 4-0 FiorentinaSerie A
DBorussia Dortmund 2-2 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
LBrighton 3-0 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
WNewport County 1-4 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
LCardiff 4-1 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lecce at 17% to win and AS Roma at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	26%	@ 3.60	-5.1%
Lecce Win	17%	@ 5.70	-5.6%
AS Roma Win	57%	@ 1.62	-7.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AS Roma or Draw at 1.13 (82% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
AS Roma or Draw	82%	@ 1.13	-7.8%
Lecce or Draw	41%	@ 2.20	-9.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.7-1.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	79%	@ 1.22	-3.7%
Under 2.5	58%	@ 1.65	-3.8%
Over 1.5	68%	@ 1.40	-4.7%
Under 1.5	32%	@ 2.90	-7.3%
Over 2.5	42%	@ 2.20	-8.2%
Over 3.5	21%	@ 4.20	-11.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	59%	@ 1.67	-1.8%
BTTS Yes	41%	@ 2.15	-11.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lecce vs AS Roma?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.40, with 68% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Lecce vs AS Roma?

Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 57%. It projects an expected 0.7-1.6 scoreline for Lecce vs AS Roma.

What is the predicted score for Lecce vs AS Roma?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.74 for Lecce and 1.61 for AS Roma. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lecce and AS Roma play?

Kick-off is Monday 31 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.