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⚽ Serie A

Lecce vs Bologna Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lecce vs Bologna in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lecce face Bologna in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Lecce have 2 wins from their last 5, while Bologna have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Bologna won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bologna win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 0.9-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lecce vs Bologna with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.28

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.87 – 1.45 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.8%	14.2%	10.3%	5.0%	1.8%
1	8.5%	12.4%	9.0%	4.3%	1.6%
2	3.7%	5.4%	3.9%	1.9%	0.7%
3	1.1%	1.6%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Lecce winDrawBologna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lecce vs Bologna comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bologna win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean under 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points no (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Lecce 21%Draw 28%Bologna 51%

21%28%51%

51%

Bologna Win

59%

Under 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lecce and Bologna. Wins shown from Lecce’s perspective: 2 drawn · Bologna 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-12	Bologna	2 – 0	Lecce	L
2025-09-28	Lecce	2 – 2	Bologna	D
2025-02-09	Lecce	0 – 0	Bologna	D
2024-11-02	Bologna	1 – 0	Lecce	L
2024-02-11	Bologna	4 – 0	Lecce	L

📈 Recent form

Lecce

Lecce come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Venezia. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at AC Milan.

LAC Milan 3-0 LecceSerie A
WLecce 3-2 MonzaSerie A
LCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
LLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A
WVenezia 0-2 LecceSerie A

Bologna

Bologna come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Napoli.

DBologna 1-1 TorinoSerie A
LNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
DBologna 2-2 SassuoloSerie A
LAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
LBologna 0-1 LazioSerie A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lecce at 21% to win and Bologna at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Bologna win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bologna Win	51%	49%	@ 1.91
Draw	28%	28%	@ 3.30
Lecce Win	21%	23%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bologna or Draw at 1.22 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bologna or Draw	77%	77%	@ 1.22
Lecce or Draw	47%	51%	@ 1.83

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	75%	@ 1.28
Over 1.5	67%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 2.5	59%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 2.5	41%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 1.5	33%	30%	@ 3.20
Over 3.5	20%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	56%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	44%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Lecce 22%Draw 29%Bologna 49%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lecce vs Bologna?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Lecce vs Bologna?

Our model makes a Bologna win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.4 scoreline for Lecce vs Bologna.

What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Bologna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.87 for Lecce and 1.45 for Bologna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lecce and Bologna play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.