Lech Poznan

Thu 15 Oct16:45Upcoming

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lech Poznan face Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Thursday 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC. The bookmaker market makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 57%, implying a 1.2-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Lech Poznan win	20%
Draw	22%
Bayer Leverkusen win	57%
Over 2.5 goals	64%
Both teams to score	61%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.20 – 2.10 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.7%	7.7%	8.1%	5.7%	3.0%
1	4.4%	9.3%	9.8%	6.8%	3.6%
2	2.7%	5.6%	5.9%	4.1%	2.2%
3	1.1%	2.2%	2.3%	1.6%	0.9%
4	0.3%	0.7%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-2

Lech Poznan winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Bayer Leverkusen win is the most likely result at 57%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 64%. Both teams to score: yes at 61%.

📊 Key numbers

Lech Poznan 20%Draw 22%Bayer Leverkusen 57%

20%22%57%

57%

Bayer Leverkusen Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Radomiak Radom. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Crystal Palace.

WSlask Wroclaw 1-4 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
DLech Poznan 2-2 Energie CottbusFriendlies Clubs
WLech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
LCrystal Palace 4-0 Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League
LGornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Union Berlin. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WFSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 CeljeUEFA Europa League
DFC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
WBayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lech Poznan

A. DouglasAnkle Injury
A. GholizadehKnee Injury
J. MoutinhoNot in squad
R. MurawskiSuspended (red card)
A. SayyadmaneshNot in squad

Bayer Leverkusen

V. BonifaceOff the roster
M. CulbreathFoot Injury
G. DoueCalf Injury
K. EichhornIllness
J. HofmannOff the roster
C. KofaneMuscle Injury
T. OermannOff the roster

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lech Poznan at 20% to win and Bayer Leverkusen at 57%, with the draw at 22%. The bookmaker market makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen Win	57%	@ 1.62
Draw	23%	@ 4.10
Lech Poznan Win	21%	@ 4.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.18 (80% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	79%	@ 1.18
Lech Poznan or Draw	43%	@ 2.25

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.2-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	64%	@ 1.50
Under 3.5	57%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	43%	@ 2.20
Under 2.5	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	39%	@ 2.38

📈 How the market moved

Lech Poznan 21%Draw 21%Bayer Leverkusen 57%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Bayer Leverkusen win is the most likely result at 57%.

Who is the favourite for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 57%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.1 scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen.

What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Lech Poznan and 2.10 for Bayer Leverkusen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen play?

Kick-off is Thursday 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.