Lech Poznan

Thu 20 Aug7-0Finished

FC Thun

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Lech Poznan vs FC Thun Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lech Poznan vs FC Thun in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lech Poznan 7-0 FC Thun

Lech Poznan vs FC Thun finished 7-0. Lech Poznan won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Lech Poznan face FC Thun in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Lech Poznan won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FC Thun win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lech Poznan vs FC Thun with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

FC Thun +2 @ 1.26

94%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.63 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	7.1%	4.2%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.9%	11.6%	6.8%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.1%	9.5%	5.5%	2.2%	0.6%
3	4.4%	5.1%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.1%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lech Poznan winDrawFC Thun win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lech Poznan vs FC Thun comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is FC Thun with a +2 start at odds 1.26, with a 94% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a FC Thun win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Lech Poznan 18%Draw 37%FC Thun 45%

18%37%45%

45%

FC Thun Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Lech Poznan and FC Thun. Wins shown from Lech Poznan’s perspective: Lech Poznan 1 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-27	FC Thun	2 – 2	Lech Poznan	D
2026-08-20	Lech Poznan	7 – 0	FC Thun	W

📈 Recent form

Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Radomiak Radom. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Crystal Palace.

WLech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
LCrystal Palace 4-0 Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League
LGornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
WLech Poznan 1-0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
WLech Poznan 2-1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa

FC Thun

FC Thun come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at FC Vaduz. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Grasshoppers.

WFC Vaduz 1-2 FC ThunSuper League
LFC Thun 0-1 GrasshoppersSuper League
LFC Sion 3-2 FC ThunSuper League
DFC Thun 0-0 LausanneSuper League
WFC St. Gallen 3-4 FC ThunSuper League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lech Poznan at 18% to win and FC Thun at 45%, with the draw at 37%. Our model makes a FC Thun win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FC Thun Win	45%	18%	@ 5.00
Draw	37%	22%	@ 4.10
Lech Poznan Win	18%	59%	@ 1.55

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FC Thun or Draw at 2.23 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FC Thun or Draw	76%	41%	@ 2.23
Lech Poznan or Draw	49%	82%	@ 1.13

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	79%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	69%	62%	@ 1.48
Over 2.5	53%	59%	@ 1.56
Under 2.5	47%	41%	@ 2.23
Over 3.5	31%	38%	@ 2.40
Under 1.5	23%	21%	@ 4.30

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	56%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	44%	44%	@ 2.10

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lech Poznan or FC Thun is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FC Thun +2	94%	75%	@ 1.26
FC Thun +1.75	93%	67%	@ 1.40
FC Thun +1.5	91%	61%	@ 1.53
FC Thun +1.25	87%	56%	@ 1.69
FC Thun +1	84%	49%	@ 1.92
FC Thun +0.75	80%	43%	@ 2.19
FC Thun +0.5	76%	40%	@ 2.34
FC Thun +0.25	70%	31%	@ 3.06
FC Thun 0	64%	22%	@ 4.25
Lech Poznan +0.75	55%	86%	1.10
Lech Poznan +0.5	49%	–	1.15
FC Thun -0.75	45%	14%	@ 7.00
Lech Poznan +0.25	43%	–	1.21
Lech Poznan 0	36%	78%	1.22
Lech Poznan -0.25	30%	69%	1.37
Lech Poznan -0.5	24%	60%	1.56
Lech Poznan -0.75	20%	57%	1.67
Lech Poznan -1	16%	51%	1.87
Lech Poznan -1.25	13%	44%	2.15
Lech Poznan -1.5	9%	39%	2.41
Lech Poznan -1.75	7%	33%	2.89
Lech Poznan -2	6%	25%	3.74

📈 How the market moved

Lech Poznan 60%Draw 22%FC Thun 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?

Our model's main pick is FC Thun with a +2 start at odds 1.26, with a 94% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?

Our model makes a FC Thun win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Lech Poznan vs FC Thun.

What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.63 for Lech Poznan and 1.17 for FC Thun. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lech Poznan and FC Thun play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.