Sat 22 Aug5-2Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Lens vs Auxerre Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lens vs Auxerre in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 15:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lens 5-2 Auxerre

Lens vs Auxerre finished 5-2. Lens won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Lens face Auxerre in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 15:15 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Lens won 3, Auxerre won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lens win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.8-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lens vs Auxerre with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Auxerre +2 @ 1.26

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.77 – 1.04 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	6.3%	3.3%	1.1%	0.3%
1	10.7%	11.1%	5.8%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.4%	9.8%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
3	5.6%	5.8%	3.0%	1.0%	0.3%
4	2.5%	2.6%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lens winDrawAuxerre win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lens vs Auxerre comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Auxerre with a +2 start at odds 1.26, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lens win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Lens 54%Draw 26%Auxerre 20%

54%26%20%

54%

Lens Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lens and Auxerre. Wins shown from Lens’s perspective: Lens 3 · 1 drawn · Auxerre 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-22	Lens	5 – 2	Auxerre	W
2026-01-17	Lens	1 – 0	Auxerre	W
2025-10-04	Auxerre	1 – 2	Lens	W
2025-04-27	Lens	0 – 4	Auxerre	L
2024-12-14	Auxerre	2 – 2	Lens	D

📈 Recent form

Lens

Lens come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Slavia Praha. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Monaco.

LMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
DLe Mans 2-2 LensLigue 1
WSlavia Praha 2-3 LensUEFA Champions League
LLens 0-1 LorientLigue 1
LStrasbourg 2-1 LensLigue 1

Auxerre

Auxerre come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Brest. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Lyon.

WAuxerre 2-1 BrestLigue 1
WAuxerre 1-0 NiceLigue 1
LLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
LAuxerre 1-3 AngersLigue 1
LLens 5-2 AuxerreLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lens

K. AntonioSuspended (red card)
S. BaidooKnee Injury
N. CelikInjury
J. ChavezThigh Injury
J. GraditThigh Injury

Auxerre

T. BairSuspended
A. DiousseKnee Injury
S. FofanaGroin Injury
R. Labeau LascaryLoan agreement
B. OkohKnee Injury
M. SenayaInjury
F. SierraltaInjury
T. SiweThigh Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lens at 54% to win and Auxerre at 20%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Lens win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lens Win	54%	61%	@ 1.52
Draw	26%	23%	@ 4.10
Auxerre Win	20%	16%	@ 5.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lens or Draw at 1.12 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lens or Draw	79%	84%	@ 1.12
Auxerre or Draw	45%	39%	@ 2.43

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	80%	@ 1.18
Under 3.5	69%	64%	@ 1.49
Over 2.5	53%	57%	@ 1.65
Under 2.5	47%	43%	@ 2.23
Over 3.5	31%	36%	@ 2.60
Under 1.5	23%	20%	@ 4.60

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	46%	45%	@ 2.05

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lens or Auxerre is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lens +0.75	82%	86%	1.10
Lens +0.5	79%	83%	1.14
Auxerre +2	78%	–	1.26
Auxerre +1.75	74%	67%	@ 1.42
Lens +0.25	73%	82%	1.16
Auxerre +1.5	70%	61%	@ 1.54
Lens 0	67%	79%	1.21
Auxerre +1.25	64%	56%	@ 1.71
Lens -0.25	61%	70%	1.36
Auxerre +1	58%	50%	@ 1.93
Lens -0.5	55%	62%	1.51
Auxerre +0.75	51%	43%	@ 2.23
Lens -0.75	49%	57%	1.67
Auxerre +0.5	45%	38%	@ 2.46
Lens -1	42%	50%	1.91
Auxerre +0.25	39%	30%	@ 3.15
Lens -1.25	36%	44%	2.17
Auxerre 0	33%	21%	@ 4.51
Lens -1.5	30%	39%	2.41
Auxerre -0.25	27%	18%	@ 5.25
Lens -1.75	26%	33%	2.90
Auxerre -0.5	21%	17%	@ 5.75
Auxerre -0.75	18%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Lens 61%Draw 22%Auxerre 16%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lens vs Auxerre?

Our model's main pick is Auxerre with a +2 start at odds 1.26, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 79%.

Who is the favourite for Lens vs Auxerre?

Our model makes a Lens win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.0 scoreline for Lens vs Auxerre.

What is the predicted score for Lens vs Auxerre?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.77 for Lens and 1.04 for Auxerre. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lens and Auxerre play?

Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 15:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.