⚽ Ligue 1
Lens vs Lyon Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lens vs Lyon in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 09 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Lens 2-1 Lyon
Lens vs Lyon finished 2-1. Lens won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Lens with a +0.75 start at 1.31, landed.
Lens face Lyon in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Friday 09 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Lens have 1 win from their last 5, while Lyon have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Lens won 3, Lyon won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lens win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.5-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lens vs Lyon with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Lens vs Lyon comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lens with a +0.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Lens win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (59%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Lens and Lyon. Wins shown from Lens’s perspective: Lens 3 · 1 drawn · Lyon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Lens | 2 – 1 | Lyon | W |
| 2026-05-17 | Lyon | 0 – 4 | Lens | W |
| 2025-08-16 | Lens | 0 – 1 | Lyon | L |
| 2025-05-04 | Lyon | 1 – 2 | Lens | W |
| 2024-09-15 | Lens | 0 – 0 | Lyon | D |
📈 Recent form
Lens come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Lyon. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Monaco.
- WLens 2-1 LyonLigue 1
- LMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
- DLe Mans 2-2 LensLigue 1
- WSlavia Praha 2-3 LensUEFA Champions League
- LLens 0-1 LorientLigue 1
Lyon come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rennes. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Lens.
- LLens 2-1 LyonLigue 1
- WLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
- WAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League
- DParis FC 0-0 LyonLigue 1
- WLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. ChavezThigh Injury
- T. HazardNot in squad
- M. NawrockiKnee Injury
- A. SimaMuscle Injury
- J. TodiboNot in squad
- R. HimbertNot in squad
- M. NiakhateMuscle Injury
- M. OuedraogoKnee Injury
- N. TagliaficoRest
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Lens at 44% to win and Lyon at 32%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Lens win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens Win | 44% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
| Lyon Win | 32% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lens or Draw at 1.40 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens or Draw | 69% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| Lyon or Draw | 57% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 | 67% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 41% | 35% | @ 2.62 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lens or Lyon is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens +1.75 | 90% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Lens +1.5 | 87% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| Lens +1.25 | 83% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Lyon +1.75 | 83% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Lyon +1.5 | 79% | 77% | 1.22 |
| Lens +1 | 78% | 80% | 1.20 |
| Lyon +1.25 | 74% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Lens +0.75 | 74% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Lens +0.5 | 69% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Lyon +1 | 68% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Lyon +0.75 | 63% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Lens +0.25 | 63% | 62% | 1.54 |
| Lyon +0.5 | 57% | 59% | 1.62 |
| Lens 0 | 56% | 55% | 1.74 |
| Lyon +0.25 | 50% | 53% | 1.83 |
| Lens -0.25 | 50% | 47% | @ 2.04 |
| Lyon 0 | 44% | 45% | 2.13 |
| Lens -0.5 | 43% | 41% | @ 2.33 |
| Lens -0.75 | 37% | 35% | @ 2.71 |
| Lyon -0.25 | 37% | 38% | 2.48 |
| Lens -1 | 32% | 28% | @ 3.45 |
| Lyon -0.5 | 31% | 34% | 2.83 |
| Lyon -0.75 | 26% | 27% | 3.52 |
| Lens -1.25 | 26% | 25% | 3.81 |
| Lyon -1 | 22% | 20% | @ 4.67 |
| Lens -1.5 | 21% | 23% | 4.15 |
| Lens -1.75 | 17% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Lyon -1.25 | 17% | 19% | 5.00 |
| Lyon -1.5 | 13% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Lyon -1.75 | 10% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lens vs Lyon?
Our main pick is Lens with a +0.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Lens vs Lyon?
Our model makes a Lens win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline for Lens vs Lyon.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Lyon?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.51 for Lens and 1.39 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Lens and Lyon play?
Kick-off is Friday 09 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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UdineseAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.