⚽ Ligue 1
Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Lille 2-2 Paris Saint-Germain
Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Lille face Paris Saint-Germain in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Paris Saint-Germain won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.1-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lille with a +1.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Lille and Paris Saint-Germain. Wins shown from Lille’s perspective: 2 drawn · Paris Saint-Germain 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Lille | 2 – 2 | Paris Saint-Germain | D |
| 2026-01-16 | Paris Saint-Germain | 3 – 0 | Lille | L |
| 2025-10-05 | Lille | 1 – 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | D |
| 2025-03-01 | Paris Saint-Germain | 4 – 1 | Lille | L |
| 2024-09-01 | Lille | 1 – 3 | Paris Saint-Germain | L |
📈 Recent form
Lille come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Estac Troyes. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Nice.
- LNice 2-1 LilleLigue 1
- WLille 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- LLille 2-3 Real BetisUEFA Champions League
- WToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
- DLille 2-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
Paris Saint-Germain come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at home to Slovan Bratislava. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Monaco.
- WMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- WBrest 0-1 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- WParis Saint-Germain 6-1 Slovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League
- LParis Saint-Germain 1-2 MonacoLigue 1
- DLille 2-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. Fernandez-PardoTransfer negotiations
- H. IgamaneKnee Injury
- B. BarcolaNot in squad
- O. DembeleRest
- I. MbayeNot in squad
- N. MendesSuspended (red card)
- J. NevesIllness
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Lille at 21% to win and Paris Saint-Germain at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain Win | 53% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
| Lille Win | 21% | 20% | @ 4.60 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.18 (78% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain or Draw | 78% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Lille or Draw | 46% | 44% | @ 2.12 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 77% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | 67% | @ 1.41 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 55% | @ 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 45% | @ 2.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | 23% | @ 4.20 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 45% | @ 2.06 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lille or Paris Saint-Germain is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain +0.75 | 82% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Lille +2 | 79% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Paris Saint-Germain +0.5 | 78% | – | 1.21 |
| Lille +1.75 | 75% | 74% | 1.30 |
| Paris Saint-Germain +0.25 | 72% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Lille +1.5 | 70% | 67% | 1.40 |
| Paris Saint-Germain 0 | 66% | – | 1.34 |
| Lille +1.25 | 64% | 63% | 1.50 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -0.25 | 60% | 63% | 1.52 |
| Lille +1 | 58% | 58% | 1.64 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -0.5 | 54% | 56% | 1.69 |
| Lille +0.75 | 52% | 50% | @ 1.94 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -0.75 | 48% | 50% | 1.94 |
| Lille +0.5 | 46% | 44% | 2.13 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1 | 42% | 42% | 2.25 |
| Lille +0.25 | 40% | 37% | @ 2.56 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1.25 | 36% | 37% | 2.60 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1.5 | 30% | 33% | 2.83 |
| Lille -0.25 | 28% | 24% | @ 4.05 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1.75 | 25% | 26% | 3.62 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -2 | 21% | 20% | 4.65 |
| Lille -0.75 | 18% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model's main pick is Lille with a +1.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.7 scoreline for Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain.
What is the predicted score for Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.13 for Lille and 1.66 for Paris Saint-Germain. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Lille and Paris Saint-Germain play?
Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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