⚽ Jupiler Pro League
Lommel United vs Charleroi Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lommel United vs Charleroi in the Jupiler Pro League. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:15 UTC.
Result: Lommel United 0-1 Charleroi
Lommel United vs Charleroi finished 0-1. Charleroi won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Lommel United face Charleroi in the upcoming Jupiler Pro League tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:15 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lommel United win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lommel United vs Charleroi with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 11.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Lommel United vs Charleroi comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lommel United with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 86% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lommel United win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Lommel United come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to KVC Westerlo. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Union St. Gilloise.
- DLommel United 0-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- LUnion St. Gilloise 5-0 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
- LLommel United 0-1 Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro League
- WCercle Brugge 0-1 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
- WLommel United 4-0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
Charleroi come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Kortrijk. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Union St. Gilloise.
- WCharleroi 3-2 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- WZulte Waregem 0-1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- LCharleroi 2-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- WKortrijk 1-3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- WCharleroi 2-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Lommel United at 48% to win and Charleroi at 26%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Lommel United win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lommel United Win | 48% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Charleroi Win | 26% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lommel United or Draw at 1.64 (73% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lommel United or Draw | 73% | 58% | @ 1.64 |
| Charleroi or Draw | 52% | 70% | @ 1.34 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | 71% | @ 1.32 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 49% | @ 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 51% | @ 1.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 55% | @ 1.68 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 45% | @ 2.04 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lommel United or Charleroi is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lommel United +1.5 | 90% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| Lommel United +1.25 | 86% | 76% | @ 1.27 |
| Lommel United +1 | 82% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Lommel United +0.75 | 78% | 64% | @ 1.51 |
| Charleroi +1.5 | 76% | 84% | 1.08 |
| Lommel United +0.5 | 73% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| Lommel United +0.25 | 67% | 50% | @ 1.92 |
| Lommel United 0 | 61% | 41% | @ 2.31 |
| Charleroi +0.75 | 58% | 77% | 1.25 |
| Lommel United -0.25 | 54% | 34% | @ 2.81 |
| Charleroi +0.5 | 52% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Lommel United -0.5 | 48% | 30% | @ 3.09 |
| Charleroi +0.25 | 46% | 66% | 1.47 |
| Lommel United -0.75 | 42% | 23% | @ 4.13 |
| Charleroi 0 | 39% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Charleroi -0.25 | 33% | 50% | 1.93 |
| Charleroi -0.5 | 27% | 43% | 2.17 |
| Lommel United -1.5 | 24% | 16% | @ 5.80 |
| Charleroi -0.75 | 22% | 36% | 2.67 |
| Charleroi -1 | 18% | 28% | 3.49 |
| Charleroi -1.25 | 14% | 24% | 3.94 |
| Charleroi -1.5 | 10% | 24% | 3.85 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Our model's main pick is Lommel United with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 86% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Our model makes a Lommel United win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Lommel United vs Charleroi.
What is the predicted score for Lommel United vs Charleroi?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.65 for Lommel United and 1.16 for Charleroi. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Lommel United and Charleroi play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:15 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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