vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
Los Angeles FC face Portland Timbers in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 02:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Los Angeles FC won 2, Portland Timbers won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Los Angeles FC win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 2.1-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a Los Angeles FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (66%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Los Angeles FC and Portland Timbers. Wins shown from Los Angeles FC’s perspective: Los Angeles FC 2 · 1 drawn · Portland Timbers 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Portland Timbers | 2 – 1 | Los Angeles FC | L |
| 2024-04-28 | Los Angeles FC | 3 – 2 | Portland Timbers | W |
| 2024-04-13 | Portland Timbers | 2 – 2 | Los Angeles FC | D |
| 2023-09-10 | Portland Timbers | 2 – 0 | Los Angeles FC | L |
| 2023-03-04 | Los Angeles FC | 3 – 2 | Portland Timbers | W |
📈 Recent form
Los Angeles FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Seattle Sounders. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Colorado Rapids.
- LColorado Rapids 1-0 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- LLos Angeles FC 0-1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- DLos Angeles FC 1-1 Club QueretaroLeagues Cup
- DVancouver Whitecaps 1-1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- WLos Angeles FC 1-0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Portland Timbers come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to San Diego. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Chicago Fire.
- WPortland Timbers 3-1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- LChicago Fire 2-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- WPortland Timbers 3-1 Club TijuanaLeagues Cup
- LPortland Timbers 1-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- LInter Miami 2-0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Igor JesusKnee Injury
- D. MartinezLeg Injury
- S. PalenciaGroin Injury
- T. HasalArm Injury
- A. AravenaHip Injury
- J. MosqueraFoot Injury
- A. BonetigUpper Back Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Los Angeles FC at 51% to win and Portland Timbers at 26%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Los Angeles FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers Win | 26% | @ 5.30 | +37.1% |
| Draw | 23% | @ 4.65 | +5.8% |
| Los Angeles FC Win | 51% | @ 1.50 | -22.9% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Portland Timbers or Draw at 2.50 (50% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers or Draw | 50% | @ 2.50 | +24.4% |
| Los Angeles FC or Draw | 75% | @ 1.15 | -13.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87% | @ 1.11 | -3.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | @ 1.40 | -3.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | @ 2.00 | -5.2% |
| Under 3.5 | 53% | @ 1.80 | -5.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | @ 2.90 | -9.6% |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | @ 6.25 | -18.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 66% | @ 1.48 | -2.7% |
| BTTS No | 34% | @ 2.45 | -16.1% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 63% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 40% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 51% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.60 for the home side, 1.05 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers?
Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with 69% model confidence.
Who is the favourite for Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers?
Our model makes a Los Angeles FC win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 2.1-1.5 scoreline for Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers.
What is the predicted score for Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.08 for Los Angeles FC and 1.47 for Portland Timbers. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Los Angeles FC and Portland Timbers play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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