⚽ La Liga
Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña in the La Liga. Kick-off Monday 24 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Result: Málaga 1-1 Deportivo La Coruña
Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Málaga face Deportivo La Coruña in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Monday 24 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.48, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Málaga and Deportivo La Coruña. Wins shown from Málaga’s perspective: 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Málaga | 1 – 1 | Deportivo La Coruña | D |
| 2026-04-04 | Deportivo La Coruña | 1 – 1 | Málaga | D |
📈 Recent form
Málaga come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Getafe.
- LGetafe 1-0 MálagaLa Liga
- LMálaga 1-3 VillarrealLa Liga
- DCelta Vigo 1-1 MálagaLa Liga
- DMálaga 0-0 LevanteLa Liga
- LReal Madrid 4-0 MálagaLa Liga
Deportivo La Coruña come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Valencia. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Sevilla.
- DDeportivo La Coruña 1-1 Real BetisLa Liga
- LDeportivo La Coruña 0-1 SevillaLa Liga
- DGetafe 1-1 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
- WVillarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
- WDeportivo La Coruña 3-1 ValenciaLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- F. CaleroRibs Injury
- M. DiarraCalf Injury
- D. MurilloInjury
- A. NinoInjury
- A. OchoaKnee Injury
- N. CarrilloInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Málaga at 18% to win and Deportivo La Coruña at 19%, with the draw at 64%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 64% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
| Deportivo La Coruña Win | 19% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Málaga Win | 18% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Deportivo La Coruña or Draw at 1.52 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña or Draw | 64% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Málaga or Draw | 63% | 70% | @ 1.35 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 63% | @ 1.48 |
| Under 3.5 | 70% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 63% | @ 1.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 46% | @ 2.02 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 54% | @ 1.72 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Málaga or Deportivo La Coruña is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña +1.75 | 87% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +1.5 | 84% | 82% | 1.15 |
| Málaga +1.5 | 83% | 86% | 1.08 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +1.25 | 79% | 79% | 1.21 |
| Málaga +1.25 | 78% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +1 | 74% | 77% | 1.25 |
| Málaga +1 | 73% | 86% | 1.12 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +0.75 | 69% | 67% | 1.43 |
| Málaga +0.75 | 68% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +0.5 | 64% | 60% | @ 1.58 |
| Málaga +0.5 | 63% | – | 1.34 |
| Deportivo La Coruña +0.25 | 57% | 53% | @ 1.83 |
| Málaga +0.25 | 56% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Deportivo La Coruña 0 | 50% | 41% | @ 2.32 |
| Málaga 0 | 50% | 59% | 1.63 |
| Deportivo La Coruña -0.25 | 44% | 34% | @ 2.81 |
| Málaga -0.25 | 43% | 47% | 2.04 |
| Málaga -0.5 | 36% | 40% | 2.37 |
| Deportivo La Coruña -0.75 | 32% | 22% | @ 4.36 |
| Málaga -0.75 | 31% | 33% | 2.87 |
| Deportivo La Coruña -1 | 27% | 14% | @ 6.62 |
| Málaga -1 | 26% | 23% | @ 4.05 |
| Deportivo La Coruña -1.25 | 22% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Málaga -1.25 | 21% | 21% | 4.59 |
| Deportivo La Coruña -1.5 | 17% | 14% | @ 6.78 |
| Málaga -1.5 | 16% | 18% | 5.05 |
| Málaga -1.75 | 13% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.48, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 63%.
Who is the favourite for Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña?
Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña.
What is the predicted score for Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.57 for Málaga and 1.19 for Deportivo La Coruña. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Málaga and Deportivo La Coruña play?
Kick-off is Monday 24 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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