⚽ La Liga

Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna in the La Liga. Kick-off Monday 24 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Malaga face Deportivo La Coruna in the La Liga, kicking off Monday 24 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.48

72%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.43 – 1.11 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	8.8%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%
1	11.3%	12.5%	6.9%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.1%	9.0%	5.0%	1.8%	0.5%
3	3.8%	4.3%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%
4	1.4%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Malaga winDrawDeportivo La Coruna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.48, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

Best value

Over 1.5 at odds 1.48, 72% model probability, +6.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Malaga 17%Draw 64%Deportivo La Coruna 19%

17%64%19%

64%

Draw

53%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

+6.7%

Best value: Over 1.5

📈 Recent form

Malaga

Malaga come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Al-Arabi SC. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Atletico Madrid.

LAtletico Madrid 2-0 MalagaLa Liga
DMalaga 2-2 FulhamFriendlies Clubs
LAD Ceuta FC 2-1 MalagaFriendlies Clubs
WMalaga 4-2 Al-Arabi SCFriendlies Clubs
DMalaga 2-2 Al-Ittihad FCFriendlies Clubs

Deportivo La Coruna

Deportivo La Coruna come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Genoa. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Real Madrid.

DDeportivo La Coruna 1-1 ElcheLa Liga
LDeportivo La Coruna 0-1 Real MadridFriendlies Clubs
WGenoa 0-1 Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs
DFiorentina 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs
DFC St. Pauli 2-2 Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Malaga

F. CaleroRibs Injury
JuanpeMuscle Injury
D. MurilloInjury
A. NinoInjury
A. OchoaKnee Injury
M. DiarraCalf Injury

Deportivo La Coruna

N. CarrilloInjury
D. MellaInjury
D. VillaresInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Malaga at 17% to win and Deportivo La Coruna at 19%, with the draw at 64%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	64%	@ 3.05	+94.7%
Deportivo La Coruna Win	19%	@ 2.78	-47.8%
Malaga Win	17%	@ 2.60	-54.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Deportivo La Coruna or Draw at 1.48 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Deportivo La Coruna or Draw	64%	@ 1.48	-5.4%
Malaga or Draw	62%	@ 1.42	-11.2%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	25%	@ 4.75	+19.2%
Over 2.5	47%	@ 2.45	+14.3%
Over 1.5	72%	@ 1.48	+6.7%
Under 3.5	75%	@ 1.18	-11.6%
Under 2.5	53%	@ 1.53	-18.4%
Under 1.5	28%	@ 2.60	-27.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	51%	@ 2.05	+4.4%
BTTS No	49%	@ 1.73	-15.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	45%
GradientBoosting	Draw	76%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.28 for the home side, 1.31 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.48, with 72% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna.

What is the predicted score for Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.43 for Malaga and 1.11 for Deportivo La Coruna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Malaga and Deportivo La Coruna play?

Kick-off is Monday 24 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.