Sun 30 Aug2-0Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Monaco vs Marseille Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Monaco vs Marseille in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Monaco 2-0 Marseille

Monaco vs Marseille finished 2-0. Monaco won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Monaco face Marseille in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Monaco have 2 wins from their last 5, while Marseille have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Monaco won 3, Marseille won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.8-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Monaco vs Marseille with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Monaco +0.75 @ 1.33

72%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.81 – 1.62 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	5.2%	4.2%	2.3%	0.9%
1	5.9%	9.5%	7.7%	4.2%	1.7%
2	5.3%	8.6%	7.0%	3.8%	1.5%
3	3.2%	5.2%	4.2%	2.3%	0.9%
4	1.4%	2.3%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Monaco winDrawMarseille win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Monaco vs Marseille comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Monaco with a +0.75 start at odds 1.33, with a 72% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Monaco win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (66%).

📊 Key numbers

Monaco 42%Draw 24%Marseille 34%

42%24%34%

42%

Monaco Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Monaco and Marseille. Wins shown from Monaco’s perspective: Monaco 3 · Marseille 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-30	Monaco	2 – 0	Marseille	W
2026-04-05	Monaco	2 – 1	Marseille	W
2025-12-14	Marseille	1 – 0	Monaco	L
2025-04-12	Monaco	3 – 0	Marseille	W
2024-12-01	Marseille	2 – 1	Monaco	L

📈 Recent form

Monaco

Monaco come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Gornik Zabrze. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
DStrasbourg 1-1 MonacoLigue 1
WParis Saint-Germain 1-2 MonacoLigue 1
WMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1
WMonaco 4-1 Gornik ZabrzeUEFA Europa Conference

Marseille

Marseille come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Paris Saint-Germain.

LMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
LBeşiktaş 4-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
LRennes 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
LMarseille 2-3 Paris FCLigue 1
LMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Monaco

F. BalogunInjury
A. FatiCalf Injury
T. MinaminoKnee Injury
M. SalisuKnee Injury

Marseille

I. PaixaoMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Monaco at 42% to win and Marseille at 34%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco Win	42%	39%	@ 2.40
Marseille Win	34%	35%	@ 2.70
Draw	24%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Monaco or Draw at 1.44 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco or Draw	68%	65%	@ 1.44
Marseille or Draw	59%	61%	@ 1.54

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	82%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	67%	61%	@ 1.54
Under 3.5	55%	60%	@ 1.58
Over 3.5	45%	40%	@ 2.35
Under 2.5	33%	39%	@ 2.45
Under 1.5	14%	18%	@ 5.30

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	66%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	34%	35%	@ 2.63

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Monaco or Marseille is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco +1.75	89%	86%	1.10
Monaco +1.5	86%	82%	@ 1.16
Marseille +1.75	84%	83%	1.14
Monaco +1.25	82%	80%	1.18
Marseille +1.5	81%	78%	1.19
Monaco +1	77%	–	1.22
Marseille +1.25	75%	76%	1.23
Monaco +0.75	72%	72%	1.33
Marseille +1	70%	75%	1.27
Monaco +0.5	68%	65%	1.45
Marseille +0.75	64%	67%	1.43
Monaco +0.25	61%	60%	1.59
Marseille +0.5	59%	60%	1.56
Monaco 0	54%	53%	1.81
Marseille +0.25	52%	55%	1.74
Monaco -0.25	48%	45%	@ 2.12
Marseille 0	46%	47%	2.03
Monaco -0.5	41%	40%	2.37
Marseille -0.25	39%	40%	2.40
Monaco -0.75	36%	33%	@ 2.85
Marseille -0.5	32%	35%	2.68
Monaco -1	30%	25%	@ 3.73
Marseille -0.75	28%	28%	3.35
Monaco -1.25	25%	24%	4.00
Monaco -1.5	19%	22%	4.25
Marseille -1.25	18%	20%	4.65
Monaco -1.75	16%	17%	5.75
Marseille -1.5	14%	18%	5.25
Marseille -1.75	11%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Monaco 39%Draw 26%Marseille 35%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Monaco vs Marseille?

Our model's main pick is Monaco with a +0.75 start at odds 1.33, with a 72% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Monaco vs Marseille?

Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.6 scoreline for Monaco vs Marseille.

What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Marseille?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.81 for Monaco and 1.62 for Marseille. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Monaco and Marseille play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.