Sat 22 Aug2-2Finished

⚽ Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

NEC Nijmegen face Excelsior in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, NEC Nijmegen won 3, Excelsior won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 2.5-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Excelsior +2 @ 1.35

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.46 – 1.49 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.9%	2.9%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%
1	4.7%	7.1%	5.3%	2.6%	1.0%
2	5.8%	8.7%	6.5%	3.2%	1.2%
3	4.8%	7.1%	5.3%	2.6%	1.0%
4	2.9%	4.4%	3.3%	1.6%	0.6%

Projected score: 2-1

NEC Nijmegen winDrawExcelsior win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Excelsior with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (71%).

📊 Key numbers

NEC Nijmegen 54%Draw 24%Excelsior 22%

54%24%22%

54%

NEC Nijmegen Win

75%

Over 2.5 goals

71%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior. Wins shown from NEC Nijmegen’s perspective: NEC Nijmegen 3 · 1 drawn · Excelsior 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-22	NEC Nijmegen	2 – 2	Excelsior	D
2026-04-04	Excelsior	0 – 2	NEC Nijmegen	W
2025-08-09	NEC Nijmegen	5 – 0	Excelsior	W
2024-05-06	Excelsior	0 – 3	NEC Nijmegen	W
2023-08-13	NEC Nijmegen	3 – 4	Excelsior	L

📈 Recent form

NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at PEC Zwolle. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Juventus.

DNEC Nijmegen 1-1 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
LJuventus 5-0 NEC NijmegenUEFA Europa League
LCambuur 3-0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
LNEC Nijmegen 1-3 FeyenoordEredivisie
WPEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie

Excelsior

Excelsior come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Utrecht.

DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
LExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
WWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

NEC Nijmegen

D. FonvilleAnkle Injury
A. KaplanKnee Injury
B. LinssenInjury
E. MorNot in squad
D. NejasmicNot in squad

Excelsior

N. NaujoksNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices NEC Nijmegen at 54% to win and Excelsior at 22%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
NEC Nijmegen Win	54%	60%	@ 1.56
Draw	24%	22%	@ 4.35
Excelsior Win	22%	18%	@ 5.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is NEC Nijmegen or Draw at 1.16 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
NEC Nijmegen or Draw	78%	82%	@ 1.16
Excelsior or Draw	46%	40%	@ 2.35

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	90%	86%	@ 1.10
Over 2.5	75%	67%	@ 1.40
Over 3.5	56%	47%	@ 2.02
Under 3.5	44%	53%	@ 1.77
Under 2.5	25%	33%	@ 2.88
Under 1.5	10%	14%	@ 6.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 71%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	71%	64%	@ 1.46
BTTS No	29%	36%	@ 2.55

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when NEC Nijmegen or Excelsior is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
NEC Nijmegen +0.75	82%	85%	1.12
Excelsior +2	79%	74%	@ 1.35
Excelsior +2	79%	74%	@ 1.28
NEC Nijmegen +0.5	78%	80%	1.12
NEC Nijmegen +0.5	78%	80%	1.18
Excelsior +1.75	74%	66%	@ 1.50
Excelsior +1.75	74%	66%	@ 1.43
NEC Nijmegen +0.25	72%	78%	1.14
NEC Nijmegen +0.25	72%	78%	1.21
Excelsior +1.5	70%	57%	@ 1.65
Excelsior +1.5	70%	57%	@ 1.60
NEC Nijmegen 0	66%	76%	1.20
NEC Nijmegen 0	66%	76%	1.25
Excelsior +1.25	64%	56%	@ 1.79
Excelsior +1.25	64%	56%	@ 1.70
NEC Nijmegen -0.25	60%	67%	1.33
NEC Nijmegen -0.25	60%	67%	1.42
Excelsior +1	58%	51%	@ 2.10
Excelsior +1	58%	51%	@ 1.88
NEC Nijmegen -0.5	54%	60%	1.48
NEC Nijmegen -0.5	54%	60%	1.56
Excelsior +0.75	52%	45%	@ 2.38
Excelsior +0.75	52%	45%	@ 2.13
NEC Nijmegen -0.75	48%	55%	1.57
NEC Nijmegen -0.75	48%	55%	1.73
Excelsior +0.5	46%	40%	@ 2.65
Excelsior +0.5	46%	40%	@ 2.35
NEC Nijmegen -1	42%	49%	1.73
NEC Nijmegen -1	42%	49%	1.93
Excelsior +0.25	40%	33%	@ 3.32
Excelsior +0.25	40%	33%	@ 2.86
NEC Nijmegen -1.25	36%	44%	2.04
NEC Nijmegen -1.25	36%	44%	2.18
Excelsior 0	34%	24%	@ 4.00
NEC Nijmegen -1.5	30%	43%	2.17
Excelsior -0.25	28%	22%	@ 5.75
Excelsior -0.25	28%	22%	@ 4.25
NEC Nijmegen -1.75	26%	34%	2.56
NEC Nijmegen -1.75	26%	34%	2.82
Excelsior -0.5	22%	20%	@ 6.00
Excelsior -0.5	22%	20%	@ 4.65
NEC Nijmegen -2	21%	26%	3.20
NEC Nijmegen -2	21%	26%	3.60
Excelsior -0.75	18%	15%	@ 6.25

📈 How the market moved

NEC Nijmegen 60%Draw 22%Excelsior 19%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?

Our model's main pick is Excelsior with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?

Our model makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 2.5-1.5 scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior.

What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.46 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.49 for Excelsior. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior play?

Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.