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⚽ Major League Soccer
New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:00 UTC.
New York City FC face Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:00 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, New York City FC won 1, Philadelphia Union won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.8-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is both teams to score at odds 1.55, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates a New York City FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (68%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.65 (+10.8% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between New York City FC and Philadelphia Union. Wins shown from New York City FC’s perspective: New York City FC 1 · Philadelphia Union 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-18 | New York City FC | 1 – 5 | Philadelphia Union | L |
| 2024-05-15 | Philadelphia Union | 1 – 2 | New York City FC | W |
| 2023-07-15 | Philadelphia Union | 2 – 1 | New York City FC | L |
| 2023-05-27 | New York City FC | 1 – 3 | Philadelphia Union | L |
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices New York City FC at 40% to win and Philadelphia Union at 31%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 29% | @ 3.70 | +7.2% |
| Philadelphia Union Win | 31% | @ 3.05 | -4.2% |
| New York City FC Win | 40% | @ 2.12 | -16.0% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Philadelphia Union or Draw at 1.70 (59% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 59% | @ 1.70 | +0.4% |
| New York City FC or Draw | 67% | @ 1.36 | -8.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 46% | @ 2.65 | +20.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | @ 1.65 | +10.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | @ 1.20 | +3.2% |
| Under 3.5 | 54% | @ 1.48 | -19.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | @ 2.20 | -27.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | @ 4.33 | -39.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 68% | @ 1.55 | +4.7% |
| BTTS No | 32% | @ 2.30 | -25.4% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 43% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 40% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 38% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.39 for the home side, 1.21 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Our main pick is both teams to score at odds 1.55, with 68% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.65 (+10.8% value).
Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.7 scoreline for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union.
What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.80 for New York City FC and 1.66 for Philadelphia Union. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do New York City FC and Philadelphia Union play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.