Fri 31 Jul1-1Finished

⚽ Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Toronto FC Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York City FC vs Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Friday 31 July 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC

New York City FC vs Toronto FC finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Toronto FC Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.31, landed.

New York City FC face Toronto FC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Friday 31 July 2026, 23:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, New York City FC won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.7-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York City FC vs Toronto FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Toronto FC Asian Handicap +1.75 @ 1.31

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.67 – 1.03 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	6.9%	3.6%	1.2%	0.3%
1	11.2%	11.6%	6.0%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.4%	9.7%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
3	5.2%	5.4%	2.8%	1.0%	0.2%
4	2.2%	2.2%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

New York City FC winDrawToronto FC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for New York City FC vs Toronto FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Toronto FC Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a New York City FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

New York City FC 52%Draw 31%Toronto FC 17%

52%31%17%

52%

New York City FC Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between New York City FC and Toronto FC. Wins shown from New York City FC’s perspective: New York City FC 3 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-29	Toronto FC	1 – 1	New York City FC	D
2026-07-31	New York City FC	1 – 1	Toronto FC	D
2024-05-11	Toronto FC	2 – 3	New York City FC	W
2024-03-16	New York City FC	2 – 1	Toronto FC	W
2023-09-24	New York City FC	3 – 0	Toronto FC	W

📈 Recent form

New York City FC

New York City FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Real Salt Lake. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to New York Red Bulls.

LNew York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
WReal Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
LNew York City FC 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
DNew York City FC 0-0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

Toronto FC

Toronto FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Nashville SC. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at St. Louis City.

LSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
LOrlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
WToronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

New York City FC

D. BaieraKnee Injury
A. FarnosInjury
A. MartinezKnee Injury
M. MoralezKnee Injury
A. O'NeillAnkle Injury
K. O'TooleLeg Injury
K. ParksGroin Injury
Raul GustavoLeg Injury

Toronto FC

M. CimermancicThigh Injury
N. GomisThigh Injury
Matheus PereiraGroin Injury
N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
L. StefanovicFoot Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices New York City FC at 52% to win and Toronto FC at 17%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
New York City FC Win	52%	59%	@ 1.60
Draw	31%	23%	@ 4.10
Toronto FC Win	17%	18%	@ 5.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York City FC or Draw at 1.15 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
New York City FC or Draw	73%	82%	@ 1.15
Toronto FC or Draw	52%	41%	@ 2.28

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	78%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	71%	66%	@ 1.43
Over 2.5	51%	55%	@ 1.70
Under 2.5	49%	45%	@ 2.12
Over 3.5	29%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	25%	22%	@ 4.30

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	55%	@ 1.68
BTTS No	48%	45%	@ 2.05

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when New York City FC or Toronto FC is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Toronto FC +2	82%	79%	1.19
Toronto FC +1.75	79%	73%	@ 1.31
New York City FC +0.75	77%	84%	1.13
Toronto FC +1.5	75%	65%	@ 1.44
New York City FC +0.5	73%	79%	1.18
Toronto FC +1.25	69%	61%	@ 1.54
New York City FC +0.25	67%	–	1.24
Toronto FC +1	63%	55%	@ 1.72
New York City FC 0	61%	–	1.29
Toronto FC +0.75	58%	48%	@ 1.99
New York City FC -0.25	54%	65%	1.48
Toronto FC +0.5	52%	42%	@ 2.22
New York City FC -0.5	48%	58%	1.63
Toronto FC +0.25	46%	35%	@ 2.69
New York City FC -0.75	42%	52%	1.85
New York City FC -1	37%	45%	2.12
New York City FC -1.25	31%	39%	2.46
Toronto FC -0.5	27%	21%	@ 4.45
New York City FC -1.5	25%	35%	2.69
Toronto FC -0.75	23%	16%	@ 5.90
New York City FC -1.75	21%	27%	3.48
New York City FC -2	18%	21%	4.50

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

Our model's main pick is Toronto FC Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline for New York City FC vs Toronto FC.

What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.67 for New York City FC and 1.03 for Toronto FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do New York City FC and Toronto FC play?

Kick-off is Friday 31 July 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.