⚽ Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Toronto FC Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York City FC vs Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Friday 31 July 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Result: New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC

New York City FC vs Toronto FC finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Toronto FC Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.31, landed.

New York City FC face Toronto FC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Friday 31 July 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: New York City FC have 3 wins from their last 5, while Toronto FC have 0 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, New York City FC won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.7-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York City FC vs Toronto FC with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Toronto FC Asian Handicap +1.75 @ 1.31

79%

High AI Confidence

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.67 – 1.03 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	6.9%	3.6%	1.2%	0.3%
1	11.2%	11.6%	6.0%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.4%	9.7%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
3	5.2%	5.4%	2.8%	1.0%	0.2%
4	2.2%	2.2%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

New York City FC winDrawToronto FC win

Our prediction for New York City FC vs Toronto FC is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Toronto FC Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a New York City FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Toronto FC to win or draw at odds 2.22 (+15.1% model value).

Best value

Toronto FC +0.5 at odds 2.22, 52% model probability, +15.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

Key numbers

New York City FC 52%Draw 31%Toronto FC 17%

52%31%17%

52%

New York City FC Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

+15.1%

Best value: Toronto FC +0.5

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices New York City FC at 52% to win and Toronto FC at 17%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	31%	3.85	+19.2%
New York City FC Win	52%	1.66	-13.8%
Toronto FC Win	17%	4.80	-17.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Toronto FC or Draw at 2.15 (48% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Toronto FC or Draw	48%	2.15	+3.4%
New York City FC or Draw	83%	1.17	-3.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	49%	2.10	+3.7%
Under 3.5	71%	1.42	+1.4%
Under 1.5	25%	4.00	-0.5%
Over 1.5	75%	1.22	-8.3%
Over 2.5	51%	1.70	-13.9%
Over 3.5	29%	2.80	-19.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	48%	2.05	-0.6%
BTTS Yes	52%	1.70	-12.5%

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when New York City FC or Toronto FC is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Toronto FC -0.75	23%	5.90	+34.2%
Toronto FC +0.25	46%	2.69	+22.8%
Toronto FC -0.5	27%	4.45	+19.4%
Toronto FC +0.5	52%	2.22	+15.1%
Toronto FC +0.75	58%	1.99	+14.6%
Toronto FC +1	63%	1.72	+8.9%
Toronto FC +1.5	75%	1.44	+8.0%
Toronto FC +1.25	69%	1.54	+6.9%
Toronto FC +1.75	79%	1.31	+3.1%
Toronto FC +2	82%	1.19	-2.0%
New York City FC +0.75	77%	1.13	-12.7%
New York City FC +0.5	73%	1.18	-14.0%
New York City FC +0.25	67%	1.24	-17.3%
New York City FC -0.25	54%	1.48	-19.7%
New York City FC -2	18%	4.50	-20.6%
New York City FC -0.75	42%	1.85	-21.3%
New York City FC -0.5	48%	1.63	-21.4%
New York City FC 0	61%	1.29	-21.7%
New York City FC -1	37%	2.12	-22.3%
New York City FC -1.25	31%	2.46	-24.1%
New York City FC -1.75	21%	3.48	-25.9%
New York City FC -1.5	25%	2.69	-32.8%

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

Our main pick is Toronto FC Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Toronto FC to win or draw at 2.22 (+15.1% value).

Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline for New York City FC vs Toronto FC.

What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.67 for New York City FC and 1.03 for Toronto FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do New York City FC and Toronto FC play?

Kick-off is Friday 31 July 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.