Pafos
Red Bull Salzburg⚽ UEFA Europa League
Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 13 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Result: Pafos 3-3 Red Bull Salzburg
Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg finished 3-3. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Pafos face Red Bull Salzburg in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 13 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Red Bull Salzburg won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Pafos win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 2.2-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11.2% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 8.3% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Pafos with a +1.25 start at odds 1.26, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Pafos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Pafos and Red Bull Salzburg. Wins shown from Pafos’s perspective: 1 drawn · Red Bull Salzburg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Pafos | 3 – 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | D |
| 2026-08-06 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 – 0 | Pafos | L |
📈 Recent form
Pafos come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 2. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Karmiotissa. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to AEL.
- LPafos 0-2 AEL1. Division
- WAEK Larnaca 0-1 Pafos1. Division
- DPafos 0-0 Olympiakos1. Division
- WOmonia Nicosia 0-1 PafosSuper Cup
- WKarmiotissa 0-3 Pafos1. Division
Red Bull Salzburg come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Sturm Graz. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WRed Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- WLevski Sofia 0-1 Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa League
- DRied 1-1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- WSKN ST. Polten 0-3 Red Bull SalzburgCup
- WRed Bull Salzburg 4-1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Pafos at 43% to win and Red Bull Salzburg at 32%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Pafos win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos Win | 43% | 29% | @ 3.15 |
| Red Bull Salzburg Win | 32% | 43% | @ 2.14 |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Pafos or Draw at 1.62 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos or Draw | 68% | 57% | @ 1.62 |
| Red Bull Salzburg or Draw | 58% | 71% | @ 1.29 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 75% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 | 63% | 67% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 53% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 47% | @ 1.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 25% | @ 3.65 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 57% | @ 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 48% | 43% | @ 2.14 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Pafos or Red Bull Salzburg is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos +2 | 91% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Pafos +1.75 | 89% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| Pafos +1.5 | 87% | – | @ 1.23 |
| Red Bull Salzburg +1.75 | 83% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Pafos +1.25 | 82% | 75% | @ 1.26 |
| Red Bull Salzburg +1.5 | 80% | – | 1.09 |
| Pafos +1 | 78% | 72% | @ 1.31 |
| Red Bull Salzburg +1.25 | 74% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Pafos +0.75 | 73% | 64% | @ 1.49 |
| Red Bull Salzburg +1 | 69% | – | 1.17 |
| Pafos +0.5 | 68% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
| Red Bull Salzburg +0.75 | 63% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Pafos +0.25 | 62% | 52% | @ 1.83 |
| Red Bull Salzburg +0.5 | 58% | 68% | 1.38 |
| Pafos 0 | 55% | 43% | @ 2.17 |
| Red Bull Salzburg +0.25 | 51% | 62% | 1.51 |
| Pafos -0.25 | 49% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
| Red Bull Salzburg 0 | 45% | 57% | 1.67 |
| Pafos -0.5 | 42% | 32% | @ 2.89 |
| Red Bull Salzburg -0.25 | 38% | 48% | 1.99 |
| Pafos -0.75 | 37% | 26% | @ 3.59 |
| Red Bull Salzburg -0.5 | 32% | 44% | 2.12 |
| Red Bull Salzburg -0.75 | 27% | 36% | 2.62 |
| Pafos -1.25 | 26% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Red Bull Salzburg -1 | 22% | 28% | 3.38 |
| Red Bull Salzburg -1.25 | 18% | 25% | 3.74 |
| Pafos -1.75 | 17% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| Red Bull Salzburg -1.75 | 11% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Red Bull Salzburg -2 | 9% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model's main pick is Pafos with a +1.25 start at odds 1.26, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model makes a Pafos win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 2.2-0.9 scoreline for Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg.
What is the predicted score for Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.21 for Pafos and 0.87 for Red Bull Salzburg. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Pafos and Red Bull Salzburg play?
Kick-off is Thursday 13 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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