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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Palmeiras vs Corinthians Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Palmeiras vs Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Palmeiras face Corinthians in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC. Recent form: Palmeiras have 2 wins from their last 5, while Corinthians have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Palmeiras won 2, Corinthians won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 58%, projecting a 1.6-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Palmeiras vs Corinthians with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.28

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.56 – 0.73 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	7.4%	2.7%	0.7%	0.1%
1	15.8%	11.5%	4.2%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.3%	9.0%	3.3%	0.8%	0.1%
3	6.4%	4.7%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
4	2.5%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Palmeiras winDrawCorinthians win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Corinthians comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Palmeiras win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 58%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Palmeiras 58%Draw 30%Corinthians 11%

58%30%11%

58%

Palmeiras Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Palmeiras and Corinthians. Wins shown from Palmeiras’s perspective: Palmeiras 2 · 2 drawn · Corinthians 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-12	Corinthians	0 – 0	Palmeiras	D
2024-11-04	Corinthians	2 – 0	Palmeiras	L
2024-07-01	Palmeiras	2 – 0	Corinthians	W
2023-09-03	Corinthians	0 – 0	Palmeiras	D
2023-04-29	Palmeiras	2 – 1	Corinthians	W

📈 Recent form

Palmeiras

Palmeiras come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to São Paulo. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at LDU de Quito.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LLDU de Quito 3-2 PalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores
WPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 1-0 LDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A

Corinthians

Corinthians come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Fluminense.

LCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LCorinthians 0-1 Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores
LFlamengo 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
DEstudiantes L.P. 1-1 CorinthiansCONMEBOL Libertadores
LCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Palmeiras at 58% to win and Corinthians at 11%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras Win	58%	62%	@ 1.50
Draw	30%	24%	@ 3.90
Corinthians Win	11%	15%	@ 6.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.12 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras or Draw	84%	85%	@ 1.12
Corinthians or Draw	37%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	75%	@ 1.28
Over 1.5	67%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	60%	54%	@ 1.75
Over 2.5	40%	46%	@ 2.05
Under 1.5	33%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	20%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	58%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS Yes	42%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 How the market moved

Palmeiras 62%Draw 24%Corinthians 15%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 58%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.7 scoreline for Palmeiras vs Corinthians.

What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.56 for Palmeiras and 0.73 for Corinthians. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Palmeiras and Corinthians play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.