⚽ Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Paris Saint Germain face Rennes in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 3, Rennes won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 2.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.38

70%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.42 – 1.20 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.7%	3.2%	1.9%	0.8%	0.2%
1	6.5%	7.8%	4.7%	1.9%	0.6%
2	7.8%	9.4%	5.6%	2.3%	0.7%
3	6.3%	7.6%	4.6%	1.8%	0.5%
4	3.8%	4.6%	2.8%	1.1%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Paris Saint Germain winDrawRennes win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 70%. On the match result, the model rates a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 1.55, 64% model probability, -0.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Paris Saint Germain 61%Draw 21%Rennes 17%

61%21%17%

61%

Paris Saint Germain Win

70%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

-0.7%

Best value: BTTS Yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Paris Saint Germain and Rennes. Wins shown from Paris Saint Germain’s perspective: Paris Saint Germain 3 · 1 drawn · Rennes 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-13	Rennes	3 – 1	Paris Saint Germain	L
2025-12-06	Paris Saint Germain	5 – 0	Rennes	W
2025-03-08	Rennes	1 – 4	Paris Saint Germain	W
2024-09-27	Paris Saint Germain	3 – 1	Rennes	W
2024-02-25	Paris Saint Germain	1 – 1	Rennes	D

📈 Recent form

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Aston Villa. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Lens.

LLens 1-0 Paris Saint GermainTrophée des Champions
WParis Saint Germain 2-1 Aston VillaUEFA Super Cup
DManchester United 1-1 Paris Saint GermainFriendlies Clubs
LMallorca 3-0 Paris Saint GermainFriendlies Clubs
DParis Saint Germain 1-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League

Rennes

Rennes come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Guingamp. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Sunderland.

LSunderland 2-1 RennesFriendlies Clubs
LRennes 2-4 BrentfordFriendlies Clubs
DGalatasaray 3-3 RennesFriendlies Clubs
WRennes 2-1 Club Brugge KVFriendlies Clubs
WRennes 3-1 GuingampFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Paris Saint Germain

B. BarcolaNot in squad
I. MbayeNot in squad
N. MendesSuspended (red card)

Rennes

M. CamaraSuspended (cards)

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Paris Saint Germain at 61% to win and Rennes at 17%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Rennes Win	17%	@ 7.10	+22.2%
Draw	21%	@ 5.10	+9.2%
Paris Saint Germain Win	61%	@ 1.37	-15.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rennes or Draw at 2.95 (39% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Rennes or Draw	39%	@ 2.95	+14.8%
Paris Saint Germain or Draw	83%	@ 1.09	-9.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	88%	@ 1.11	-2.8%
Over 2.5	70%	@ 1.38	-3.3%
Over 3.5	49%	@ 1.95	-4.7%
Under 3.5	51%	@ 1.83	-6.5%
Under 2.5	30%	@ 3.00	-10.2%
Under 1.5	12%	@ 6.25	-22.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	64%	@ 1.55	-0.7%
BTTS No	36%	@ 2.30	-17.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 70% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?

Our model makes a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 2.4-1.2 scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes.

What is the predicted score for Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.42 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.20 for Rennes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Paris Saint Germain and Rennes play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.