vs
⚽ Serie A
Parma vs Cagliari Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Parma vs Cagliari in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Parma face Cagliari in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Cagliari won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Parma win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Parma vs Cagliari with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1% | 11.0% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 12.2% | 13.2% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Parma vs Cagliari is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.48, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Parma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Parma and Cagliari. Wins shown from Parma’s perspective: 1 drawn · Cagliari 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Parma | 1 – 1 | Cagliari | D |
| 2025-09-13 | Cagliari | 2 – 0 | Parma | L |
| 2025-02-09 | Cagliari | 2 – 1 | Parma | L |
| 2024-09-30 | Parma | 2 – 3 | Cagliari | L |
📈 Recent form
Parma come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Catania. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Sampdoria.
- WParma 2-0 CataniaCoppa Italia
- LParma 0-2 SampdoriaFriendlies Clubs
- DParma 1-1 Iraklis 1908Friendlies Clubs
- DParma 1-1 ArezzoFriendlies Clubs
- WParma 1-0 SassuoloSerie A
Cagliari come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Arezzo.
- WCagliari 1-0 ArezzoCoppa Italia
- DUnion Berlin 2-2 CagliariFriendlies Clubs
- WCagliari 1-0 ModenaFriendlies Clubs
- DSampdoria 0-0 CagliariFriendlies Clubs
- WAC Milan 1-2 CagliariSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- S. BritschgiSuspended (cards)
- B. CremaschiKnee Injury
- H. Nicolussi CavigliaMuscle Injury
- B. BaloghHealth problems
- A. JoujouNot in squad
- A. AlbarracinNot in squad
- S. EspositoInjury
- R. IdrissiKnee Injury
- Y. TrepyInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Parma at 36% to win and Cagliari at 32%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Parma win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Win | 32% | @ 3.15 | +2.0% |
| Draw | 31% | @ 2.98 | -6.5% |
| Parma Win | 36% | @ 2.45 | -11.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cagliari or Draw at 1.52 (61% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari or Draw | 61% | @ 1.52 | -6.8% |
| Parma or Draw | 65% | @ 1.35 | -11.9% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 40% | @ 2.48 | -0.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | @ 1.48 | -1.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 80% | @ 1.19 | -4.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | @ 1.54 | -7.7% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | @ 4.58 | -9.0% |
| Under 1.5 | 33% | @ 2.68 | -10.8% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 54% | @ 1.77 | -4.3% |
| BTTS Yes | 46% | @ 1.99 | -8.2% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Parma or Cagliari is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari -1 | 25% | @ 6.36 | +58.9% |
| Cagliari -1.25 | 20% | @ 6.80 | +36.3% |
| Cagliari -0.75 | 30% | @ 4.13 | +23.8% |
| Cagliari -0.25 | 42% | @ 2.72 | +12.9% |
| Cagliari -0.5 | 35% | @ 3.12 | +8.9% |
| Cagliari 0 | 48% | @ 2.16 | +3.9% |
| Parma -1.75 | 15% | @ 7.00 | +3.3% |
| Cagliari -1.5 | 15% | @ 6.78 | +2.2% |
| Parma -0.75 | 33% | @ 3.00 | +0.3% |
| Cagliari +0.25 | 55% | 1.79 | -1.8% |
| Cagliari +0.5 | 61% | 1.56 | -4.4% |
| Cagliari +1.5 | 82% | 1.16 | -4.8% |
| Parma -0.25 | 45% | 2.10 | -5.1% |
| Cagliari +1.75 | 85% | 1.10 | -6.2% |
| Cagliari +0.75 | 67% | 1.40 | -6.8% |
| Parma -0.5 | 39% | 2.40 | -7.1% |
| Parma +1.5 | 85% | 1.09 | -7.4% |
| Cagliari +1.25 | 77% | 1.19 | -8.2% |
| Parma -1.5 | 18% | 5.08 | -10.8% |
| Cagliari +1 | 72% | 1.23 | -11.6% |
| Parma +0.5 | 65% | 1.36 | -11.7% |
| Parma 0 | 52% | 1.70 | -11.8% |
| Parma +1.25 | 80% | 1.10 | -12.0% |
| Parma +0.75 | 70% | 1.24 | -13.1% |
| Parma +0.25 | 58% | 1.48 | -13.7% |
| Parma +1 | 75% | 1.13 | -15.2% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 44% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 37% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 35% |
Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.
Expected goals: 1.34 for the home side, 1.26 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Parma vs Cagliari?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.48, with 67% model confidence.
Who is the favourite for Parma vs Cagliari?
Our model makes a Parma win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline for Parma vs Cagliari.
What is the predicted score for Parma vs Cagliari?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Parma and 1.09 for Cagliari. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Parma and Cagliari play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.