Sun 23 Aug5-1Finished

⚽ Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 12:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Groningen

PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen finished 5-1. PSV Eindhoven won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

PSV Eindhoven face Groningen in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 12:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, PSV Eindhoven won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 77%, projecting a 2.9-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

PSV Eindhoven Win @ 1.34

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.92 – 1.15 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.7%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%
1	5.0%	5.7%	3.3%	1.3%	0.4%
2	7.3%	8.4%	4.8%	1.8%	0.5%
3	7.1%	8.1%	4.7%	1.8%	0.5%
4	5.2%	5.9%	3.4%	1.3%	0.4%

Projected score: 2-1

PSV Eindhoven winDrawGroningen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is a PSV Eindhoven win at odds 1.34, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 77%. Goals lean over 2.5 (77%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

📊 Key numbers

PSV Eindhoven 77%Draw 12%Groningen 10%

77%12%10%

77%

PSV Eindhoven Win

77%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen. Wins shown from PSV Eindhoven’s perspective: PSV Eindhoven 5.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-23	PSV Eindhoven	5 – 1	Groningen	W
2026-02-08	Groningen	1 – 2	PSV Eindhoven	W
2025-08-23	PSV Eindhoven	4 – 2	Groningen	W
2025-04-05	Groningen	1 – 3	PSV Eindhoven	W
2024-11-23	PSV Eindhoven	5 – 0	Groningen	W

📈 Recent form

PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at Utrecht. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Twente.

LTwente 3-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WPSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
WAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie

Groningen

Groningen come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 11. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to PEC Zwolle. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Fortuna Sittard.

WGroningen 3-0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
DGo Ahead Eagles 1-1 GroningenEredivisie
DGroningen 2-2 TwenteEredivisie
LGroningen 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
LPSV Eindhoven 5-1 GroningenEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

PSV Eindhoven

C. DriouechKnock
A. PleaInjury
J. SchoutenKnee Injury

Groningen

M. JengLeg Injury
T. MerceraInjury
R. MetuInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices PSV Eindhoven at 77% to win and Groningen at 10%, with the draw at 12%. Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
PSV Eindhoven Win	77%	70%	@ 1.34
Draw	12%	18%	@ 5.30
Groningen Win	10%	12%	@ 7.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.08 (91% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
PSV Eindhoven or Draw	91%	88%	@ 1.08
Groningen or Draw	24%	30%	@ 3.10

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.9-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 77% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	91%	88%	@ 1.07
Over 2.5	77%	71%	@ 1.32
Over 3.5	58%	52%	@ 1.82
Under 3.5	42%	48%	@ 1.94
Under 2.5	23%	29%	@ 3.30
Under 1.5	9%	12%	@ 7.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	64%	61%	@ 1.52
BTTS No	36%	39%	@ 2.35

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when PSV Eindhoven or Groningen is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
PSV Eindhoven 0	83%	86%	1.11
PSV Eindhoven -0.25	79%	77%	1.22
PSV Eindhoven -0.5	76%	71%	1.32
PSV Eindhoven -0.75	70%	68%	1.41
PSV Eindhoven -1	64%	64%	1.50
PSV Eindhoven -1.25	59%	57%	1.69
Groningen +2	58%	61%	1.57
PSV Eindhoven -1.5	53%	51%	1.85
Groningen +1.75	53%	54%	1.77
PSV Eindhoven -1.75	47%	46%	2.08
Groningen +1.5	47%	49%	1.94
PSV Eindhoven -2	42%	39%	@ 2.42
Groningen +1.25	41%	43%	2.21
Groningen +1	36%	36%	2.66
Groningen +0.75	30%	32%	2.95
Groningen +0.5	24%	29%	3.24
Groningen +0.25	21%	23%	4.15
Groningen 0	17%	14%	@ 6.60

📈 How the market moved

PSV Eindhoven 70%Draw 18%Groningen 12%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?

Our model's main pick is a PSV Eindhoven win at odds 1.34, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?

Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 77%. It projects an expected 2.9-1.1 scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen.

What is the predicted score for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.92 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.15 for Groningen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do PSV Eindhoven and Groningen play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 12:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.