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⚽ Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Friday 09 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

PSV Eindhoven face Heerenveen in the Eredivisie, kicking off Friday 09 October 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: PSV Eindhoven have 4 wins from their last 5, while Heerenveen have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, PSV Eindhoven won 4, Heerenveen won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 78%, projecting a 3.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

PSV Eindhoven Win @ 1.25

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 3.23 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.1%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%
1	3.7%	4.6%	2.9%	1.2%	0.4%
2	5.9%	7.4%	4.6%	1.9%	0.6%
3	6.4%	8.0%	5.0%	2.1%	0.6%
4	5.1%	6.4%	4.0%	1.7%	0.5%

Projected score: 3-1

PSV Eindhoven winDrawHeerenveen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is a PSV Eindhoven win at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 78%. Goals lean over 2.5 (82%), both teams to score points yes (69%).

📊 Key numbers

PSV Eindhoven 78%Draw 12%Heerenveen 10%

78%12%10%

78%

PSV Eindhoven Win

82%

Over 2.5 goals

69%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen. Wins shown from PSV Eindhoven’s perspective: PSV Eindhoven 4 · Heerenveen 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-21	PSV Eindhoven	3 – 1	Heerenveen	W
2025-12-06	Heerenveen	0 – 2	PSV Eindhoven	W
2025-03-08	PSV Eindhoven	2 – 1	Heerenveen	W
2024-12-14	Heerenveen	1 – 0	PSV Eindhoven	L
2024-04-25	Heerenveen	0 – 8	PSV Eindhoven	W

📈 Recent form

PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at Utrecht. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Twente.

LTwente 3-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WPSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
WAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie

Heerenveen

Heerenveen come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Sparta Rotterdam. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to AZ Alkmaar.

WSparta Rotterdam 0-4 HeerenveenEredivisie
DHeerenveen 0-0 TelstarEredivisie
LHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
LHeerenveen 0-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

PSV Eindhoven

L. GeertruidaInjury
S. LammersLacking Match Fitness
A. NagaloInjury
S. OuaissaMuscle Injury
R. PepiInjury
A. PleaInjury
J. SchoutenKnee Injury
K. SildilliaInjury

Heerenveen

M. EgbringInjury
M. HilgersKnee Injury
D. ProperInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices PSV Eindhoven at 78% to win and Heerenveen at 10%, with the draw at 12%. Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
PSV Eindhoven Win	78%	76%	@ 1.25
Draw	12%	15%	@ 6.50
Heerenveen Win	10%	10%	@ 9.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.07 (91% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
PSV Eindhoven or Draw	91%	90%	@ 1.07
Heerenveen or Draw	24%	24%	@ 3.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 82% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	94%	94%	@ 1.03
Over 2.5	82%	83%	@ 1.14
Over 3.5	65%	69%	@ 1.36
Under 3.5	35%	31%	@ 3.00
Under 2.5	18%	17%	@ 5.50
Under 1.5	6%	6%	@ 15.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 69%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	69%	69%	@ 1.36
BTTS No	31%	31%	@ 3.00

📈 How the market moved

PSV Eindhoven 76%Draw 13%Heerenveen 11%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?

Our model's main pick is a PSV Eindhoven win at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?

Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 78%. It projects an expected 3.2-1.2 scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen.

What is the predicted score for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 3-1, based on expected goals of 3.23 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.25 for Heerenveen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen play?

Kick-off is Friday 09 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.