Thu 15 Oct01:30Upcoming

⚽ Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 15 October 2026, 01:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Real Salt Lake face San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Thursday 15 October 2026, 01:30 UTC. Recent form: Real Salt Lake have 1 win from their last 5, while San Jose Earthquakes have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Real Salt Lake won 2, San Jose Earthquakes won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Real Salt Lake win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.9-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Real Salt Lake or Draw @ 1.30

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.90 – 1.77 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.5%	4.5%	4.0%	2.4%	1.0%
1	4.8%	8.6%	7.6%	4.5%	2.0%
2	4.6%	8.1%	7.2%	4.2%	1.9%
3	2.9%	5.2%	4.6%	2.7%	1.2%
4	1.4%	2.4%	2.2%	1.3%	0.6%

Projected score: 1-1

Real Salt Lake winDrawSan Jose Earthquakes win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Real Salt Lake or Draw at odds 1.30, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Real Salt Lake win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (69%).

📊 Key numbers

Real Salt Lake 49%Draw 28%San Jose Earthquakes 24%

49%28%24%

49%

Real Salt Lake Win

71%

Over 2.5 goals

69%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes. Wins shown from Real Salt Lake’s perspective: Real Salt Lake 2 · San Jose Earthquakes 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-10-06	San Jose Earthquakes	0 – 1	Real Salt Lake	W
2024-08-25	Real Salt Lake	0 – 2	San Jose Earthquakes	L
2023-09-17	San Jose Earthquakes	2 – 1	Real Salt Lake	L
2023-04-23	Real Salt Lake	3 – 1	San Jose Earthquakes	W

📈 Recent form

Real Salt Lake

Real Salt Lake come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to New England Revolution. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Philadelphia Union.

LPhiladelphia Union 2-1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
WReal Salt Lake 3-0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
LSeattle Sounders 2-0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
LReal Salt Lake 0-3 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
LReal Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes

San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Portland Timbers. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DColorado Rapids 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
WSan Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
DSan Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
WSan Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
WSan Diego 2-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Real Salt Lake

J. J. AriasHamstring Injury
E. EneliKnee Injury
L. EngelHamstring Injury
J. GladGroin Injury
D. LunaKnee Injury
G. DillonFoot Injury

San Jose Earthquakes

N. AdimabuaHernia
J. A. Gonzalez MendozaInjury
D. JohnsonLower-Body Injury
D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
J. SkahanLower-Body Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Real Salt Lake at 49% to win and San Jose Earthquakes at 24%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Real Salt Lake win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Real Salt Lake Win	49%	48%	@ 1.91
Draw	28%	25%	@ 3.75
San Jose Earthquakes Win	24%	27%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Real Salt Lake or Draw at 1.30 (75% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Real Salt Lake or Draw	75%	73%	@ 1.30
San Jose Earthquakes or Draw	50%	52%	@ 1.83

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	88%	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	71%	64%	@ 1.48
Over 3.5	50%	44%	@ 2.10
Under 3.5	50%	56%	@ 1.67
Under 2.5	29%	36%	@ 2.60
Under 1.5	12%	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 69%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	69%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	31%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

Real Salt Lake 48%Draw 24%San Jose Earthquakes 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Our model's pick is Real Salt Lake or Draw at odds 1.30, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Our model makes a Real Salt Lake win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.8 scoreline for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes.

What is the predicted score for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.90 for Real Salt Lake and 1.77 for San Jose Earthquakes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes play?

Kick-off is Thursday 15 October 2026, 01:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.