⚽ UEFA Europa League

Saburtalo vs Larne Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Saburtalo vs Larne in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Tuesday 11 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Saburtalo face Larne in the UEFA Europa League, kicking off Tuesday 11 August 2026, 16:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Saburtalo win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Saburtalo vs Larne with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Larne +1.75 @ 1.29

80%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.63 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	7.1%	4.2%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.9%	11.6%	6.8%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.1%	9.5%	5.5%	2.2%	0.6%
3	4.4%	5.1%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.1%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Saburtalo winDrawLarne win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Saburtalo vs Larne is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Larne with a +1.75 start at odds 1.29, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Saburtalo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Larne with a +0.75 start at odds 1.98 (+16.9% model value).

Best value

Larne +0.75 at odds 1.98, 59% model probability, +16.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Saburtalo 48%Draw 24%Larne 27%

48%24%27%

48%

Saburtalo Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

+16.9%

Best value: Larne +0.75

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Saburtalo at 48% to win and Larne at 27%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Saburtalo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Larne Win	27%	5.40	+47.5%
Draw	24%	3.60	-11.7%
Saburtalo Win	48%	1.65	-20.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Larne or Draw at 2.15 (52% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Larne or Draw	52%	2.15	+11.4%
Saburtalo or Draw	73%	1.14	-17.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	31%	3.80	+17.1%
Over 2.5	53%	2.10	+11.4%
Over 1.5	77%	1.38	+6.1%
Under 3.5	69%	1.25	-13.5%
Under 2.5	47%	1.70	-20.2%
Under 1.5	23%	3.00	-30.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	55%	2.00	+10.9%
BTTS No	45%	1.70	-24.2%

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Saburtalo or Larne is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Larne 0	41%	3.92	+60.8%
Larne -0.25	35%	4.50	+56.3%
Larne +0.25	47%	2.75	+29.5%
Larne +0.75	59%	1.98	+16.9%
Larne +0.5	53%	2.19	+16.8%
Larne +1	65%	1.67	+8.1%
Larne +1.25	70%	1.50	+5.9%
Larne +1.5	76%	1.38	+5.2%
Larne +1.75	80%	1.29	+2.6%
Larne +2	83%	1.18	-1.9%
Saburtalo +0.75	76%	1.14	-13.7%
Saburtalo +0.5	71%	1.20	-14.3%
Saburtalo -2	17%	4.80	-18.9%
Saburtalo +0.25	65%	1.20	-22.1%
Saburtalo -1	35%	2.19	-22.9%
Saburtalo -0.25	53%	1.45	-23.7%
Saburtalo -0.5	47%	1.64	-23.8%
Saburtalo -0.75	41%	1.84	-24.7%
Saburtalo -1.25	30%	2.53	-25.0%
Saburtalo 0	59%	1.24	-26.8%
Saburtalo -1.75	20%	3.54	-27.6%
Saburtalo -1.5	24%	2.87	-31.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	48%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.59 for the home side, 1.19 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Saburtalo vs Larne?

Our main pick is Larne with a +1.75 start at odds 1.29, with 80% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Larne with a +0.75 start at 1.98 (+16.9% value).

Who is the favourite for Saburtalo vs Larne?

Our model makes a Saburtalo win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Saburtalo vs Larne.

What is the predicted score for Saburtalo vs Larne?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.63 for Saburtalo and 1.17 for Larne. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Saburtalo and Larne play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 11 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.