Fri 2 Oct1-2Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

São Paulo vs Santos Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for São Paulo vs Santos in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Friday 02 October 2026, 23:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: São Paulo 1-2 Santos

São Paulo vs Santos finished 1-2. Santos won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Santos Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at 1.30, landed.

São Paulo face Santos in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Friday 02 October 2026, 23:00 UTC. Recent form: São Paulo have 3 wins from their last 5, while Santos have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, São Paulo won 1, Santos won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a São Paulo win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for São Paulo vs Santos with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Santos Asian Handicap +1.25 @ 1.30

73%Bookmaker odds imply 77%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.61 – 1.13 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	7.3%	4.1%	1.6%	0.4%
1	10.4%	11.7%	6.6%	2.5%	0.7%
2	8.4%	9.5%	5.3%	2.0%	0.6%
3	4.5%	5.1%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

São Paulo winDrawSantos win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Santos comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Santos Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a São Paulo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

São Paulo 44%Draw 28%Santos 29%

44%28%29%

44%

São Paulo Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between São Paulo and Santos. Wins shown from São Paulo’s perspective: São Paulo 1 · 1 drawn · Santos 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-02	São Paulo	1 – 2	Santos	L
2023-11-12	Santos	0 – 0	São Paulo	D
2023-07-16	São Paulo	4 – 1	Santos	W

📈 Recent form

São Paulo

São Paulo come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Santos.

LSão Paulo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
WSão Paulo 1-0 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
DSão Paulo 1-1 Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
LBoca Juniors 1-0 São PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana

Santos

Santos come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atlético Mineiro. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-4 at Atlético Mineiro.

WSão Paulo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
WRemo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
LAtlético Mineiro 4-2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
WSantos 2-0 Atlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

São Paulo

D. BobadillaNot in squad
Jonathan CalleriSuspended (cards)
Lucas MouraAchilles Tendon Injury
Lucca MarquesJaw injury
D. DuarteInjury

Santos

A. BarrealThigh Injury
CoutinhoNot in squad
Gabriel BontempoSuspended (cards)
Gabriel BrazaoNot in squad
Luan PeresSuspended (cards)
NeymarThigh Injury
Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
Willian AraoNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices São Paulo at 44% to win and Santos at 29%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a São Paulo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
São Paulo Win	44%	48%	@ 1.97
Santos Win	29%	24%	@ 3.90
Draw	28%	28%	@ 3.35

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is São Paulo or Draw at 1.25 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
São Paulo or Draw	70%	76%	@ 1.25
Santos or Draw	56%	52%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	69%	@ 1.36
Under 3.5	70%	76%	@ 1.23
Over 2.5	52%	44%	@ 2.16
Under 2.5	48%	56%	@ 1.68
Over 3.5	30%	24%	@ 3.95
Under 1.5	24%	31%	@ 3.05

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	49%	@ 1.90
BTTS No	47%	51%	@ 1.81

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when São Paulo or Santos is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Santos +1.75	82%	81%	1.17
Santos +1.5	78%	76%	1.25
São Paulo +0.75	75%	79%	1.20
Santos +1.25	73%	73%	1.30
São Paulo +0.5	70%	74%	1.28
Santos +1	67%	69%	1.38
São Paulo +0.25	64%	70%	1.36
Santos +0.75	61%	60%	1.58
São Paulo 0	57%	65%	1.48
Santos +0.5	56%	54%	@ 1.80
São Paulo -0.25	51%	54%	1.77
Santos +0.25	49%	46%	@ 2.06
São Paulo -0.5	44%	46%	2.08
Santos 0	43%	35%	@ 2.68
São Paulo -0.75	39%	40%	2.40
Santos -0.25	36%	30%	@ 3.14
São Paulo -1	33%	31%	@ 3.10
Santos -0.5	30%	26%	@ 3.61
São Paulo -1.25	27%	27%	3.56
Santos -0.75	25%	21%	@ 4.63
São Paulo -1.5	22%	24%	3.96
São Paulo -1.75	18%	19%	5.00

📈 How the market moved

São Paulo 46%Draw 28%Santos 26%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for São Paulo vs Santos?

Our model's main pick is Santos Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 77%.

Who is the favourite for São Paulo vs Santos?

Our model makes a São Paulo win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for São Paulo vs Santos.

What is the predicted score for São Paulo vs Santos?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.61 for São Paulo and 1.13 for Santos. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do São Paulo and Santos play?

Kick-off is Friday 02 October 2026, 23:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.