⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League
SC Freiburg vs Motherwell Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 27 August 2026, 16:45 UTC.
Result: SC Freiburg 4-1 Motherwell
SC Freiburg vs Motherwell finished 4-1. SC Freiburg won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
SC Freiburg face Motherwell in the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League tips, kicking off Thursday 27 August 2026, 16:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, SC Freiburg won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 67%, projecting a 1.7-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 11.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Motherwell with a +2 start at odds 1.81, with a 88% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 67%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (56%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between SC Freiburg and Motherwell. Wins shown from SC Freiburg’s perspective: SC Freiburg 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | SC Freiburg | 4 – 1 | Motherwell | W |
| 2026-08-20 | Motherwell | 1 – 3 | SC Freiburg | W |
📈 Recent form
SC Freiburg come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DEintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- WSC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- WSC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- WSC Freiburg 4-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- WSC Freiburg 4-1 MotherwellUEFA Europa Conference
Motherwell come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Dundee Utd. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Dundee.
- LDundee 2-1 MotherwellPremiership
- LMotherwell 0-4 AberdeenPremiership
- LRangers 1-0 MotherwellPremiership
- WMotherwell 3-0 Dundee UtdPremiership
- DSt Mirren 3-3 MotherwellPremiership
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices SC Freiburg at 18% to win and Motherwell at 15%, with the draw at 67%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 67% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| SC Freiburg Win | 18% | 77% | @ 1.20 |
| Motherwell Win | 15% | 8% | @ 11.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is SC Freiburg or Draw at 1.01 (65% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg or Draw | 65% | 92% | @ 1.01 |
| Motherwell or Draw | 62% | 23% | @ 3.85 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 84% | @ 1.09 |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | 56% | @ 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 65% | @ 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 35% | @ 2.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 44% | @ 2.08 |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | 16% | @ 5.80 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 48% | @ 1.92 |
| BTTS No | 44% | 52% | @ 1.75 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when SC Freiburg or Motherwell is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell +2 | 88% | 52% | @ 1.81 |
| Motherwell +1.75 | 86% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Motherwell +1.5 | 83% | 42% | @ 2.24 |
| Motherwell +1.25 | 78% | 35% | @ 2.68 |
| Motherwell +1 | 72% | 28% | @ 3.37 |
| Motherwell +0.75 | 67% | 26% | @ 3.55 |
| Motherwell +0.5 | 62% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| Motherwell +0.25 | 55% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| SC Freiburg -0.25 | 45% | 82% | 1.16 |
| SC Freiburg -0.5 | 38% | 76% | 1.23 |
| SC Freiburg -0.75 | 33% | 74% | 1.27 |
| SC Freiburg -1 | 28% | 72% | 1.30 |
| SC Freiburg -1.25 | 22% | 65% | 1.45 |
| SC Freiburg -1.5 | 17% | 58% | 1.59 |
| SC Freiburg -1.75 | 14% | 54% | 1.75 |
| SC Freiburg -2 | 12% | 48% | 1.97 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?
Our model's main pick is Motherwell with a +2 start at odds 1.81, with a 88% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 52%.
Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?
Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 67%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell.
What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.66 for SC Freiburg and 1.17 for Motherwell. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do SC Freiburg and Motherwell play?
Kick-off is Thursday 27 August 2026, 16:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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