⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

SC Freiburg vs Motherwell Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 27 August 2026, 16:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

SC Freiburg face Motherwell in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 27 August 2026, 16:45 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 67%, projecting a 1.7-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.62

68%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.66 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.9%	6.9%	4.0%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.8%	11.5%	6.7%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.1%	9.5%	5.6%	2.2%	0.6%
3	4.5%	5.3%	3.1%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.9%	2.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

SC Freiburg winDrawMotherwell win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.62, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 67%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.62, 68% model probability, +11.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

SC Freiburg 18%Draw 67%Motherwell 15%

18%67%15%

67%

Draw

54%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

+11.0%

Best value: Under 3.5

📈 Recent form

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Crystal Palace. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at home to Aston Villa.

WMotherwell 1-3 SC FreiburgUEFA Europa Conference
WSC Freiburg 3-0 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
WSC Freiburg 2-0 StrasbourgFriendlies Clubs
WSC Freiburg 3-1 DerbyFriendlies Clubs
LSC Freiburg 0-3 Aston VillaUEFA Europa League

Motherwell

Motherwell come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to HJK Helsinki. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to SC Freiburg.

LMotherwell 1-3 SC FreiburgUEFA Europa Conference
DStenhousemuir 0-0 MotherwellLeague Cup
WMotherwell 2-0 HJK HelsinkiUEFA Europa Conference
DMotherwell 0-0 FalkirkPremiership
DHJK Helsinki 1-1 MotherwellUEFA Europa Conference

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices SC Freiburg at 18% to win and Motherwell at 15%, with the draw at 67%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	67%	@ 6.00	+303.4%
Motherwell Win	15%	@ 11.50	+71.4%
SC Freiburg Win	18%	@ 1.23	-78.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Motherwell or Draw at 4.00 (62% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Motherwell or Draw	62%	@ 4.00	+147.0%
SC Freiburg or Draw	65%	@ 1.04	-32.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	23%	@ 5.25	+18.7%
Under 2.5	46%	@ 2.55	+17.9%
Under 3.5	68%	@ 1.62	+11.0%
Over 1.5	77%	@ 1.15	-11.0%
Over 2.5	54%	@ 1.50	-19.4%
Over 3.5	32%	@ 2.25	-29.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	56%	@ 1.95	+8.7%
BTTS No	44%	@ 1.73	-23.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.62, with 68% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 67%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell.

What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.66 for SC Freiburg and 1.17 for Motherwell. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do SC Freiburg and Motherwell play?

Kick-off is Thursday 27 August 2026, 16:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.