⚽ Bundesliga
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Result: SC Freiburg 4-1 Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen finished 4-1. SC Freiburg won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
SC Freiburg face Werder Bremen in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: SC Freiburg have 2 wins from their last 5, while Werder Bremen have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, SC Freiburg won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.8-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Werder Bremen with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a SC Freiburg win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (62%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen. Wins shown from SC Freiburg’s perspective: SC Freiburg 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | SC Freiburg | 4 – 1 | Werder Bremen | W |
| 2026-02-07 | SC Freiburg | 1 – 0 | Werder Bremen | W |
| 2025-09-20 | Werder Bremen | 0 – 3 | SC Freiburg | W |
| 2025-02-21 | SC Freiburg | 5 – 0 | Werder Bremen | W |
| 2024-10-05 | Werder Bremen | 0 – 1 | SC Freiburg | W |
📈 Recent form
SC Freiburg come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DEintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- WSC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- WSC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- WSC Freiburg 4-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- WSC Freiburg 4-1 MotherwellUEFA Europa Conference
Werder Bremen come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Lüneburger SK Hansa. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-4 at SC Freiburg.
- WWerder Bremen 3-2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- D1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- WWerder Bremen 3-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- LSC Freiburg 4-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- WLüneburger SK Hansa 0-3 Werder BremenDFB Pokal
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- F. MuslijaKnee Injury
- P. OsterhageMuscle Injury
- R. YamamotoInjury
- F. AguCalf Injury
- K. ToppKnee Injury
- M. WeiserKnee Injury
- O. WojcikMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices SC Freiburg at 48% to win and Werder Bremen at 26%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg Win | 48% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Werder Bremen Win | 26% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is SC Freiburg or Draw at 1.26 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg or Draw | 74% | 75% | @ 1.26 |
| Werder Bremen or Draw | 52% | 52% | @ 1.82 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 77% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 | 62% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 54% | @ 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 33% | @ 2.90 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 58% | @ 1.61 |
| BTTS No | 38% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when SC Freiburg or Werder Bremen is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen +2 | 83% | 84% | 1.12 |
| SC Freiburg +1 | 82% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Werder Bremen +1.75 | 79% | 77% | 1.22 |
| SC Freiburg +0.75 | 78% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Werder Bremen +1.5 | 75% | 72% | 1.31 |
| SC Freiburg +0.5 | 74% | – | 1.26 |
| Werder Bremen +1.25 | 70% | 68% | 1.40 |
| SC Freiburg +0.25 | 67% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Werder Bremen +1 | 64% | 64% | 1.50 |
| SC Freiburg 0 | 61% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Werder Bremen +0.75 | 58% | 56% | 1.71 |
| SC Freiburg -0.25 | 54% | 58% | 1.67 |
| Werder Bremen +0.5 | 52% | 50% | 1.89 |
| SC Freiburg -0.5 | 48% | 50% | 1.91 |
| Werder Bremen +0.25 | 46% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
| SC Freiburg -0.75 | 42% | 44% | 2.17 |
| Werder Bremen 0 | 39% | 33% | @ 2.87 |
| SC Freiburg -1 | 36% | 36% | 2.65 |
| Werder Bremen -0.25 | 33% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| SC Freiburg -1.25 | 30% | 32% | 3.03 |
| SC Freiburg -1.5 | 25% | 28% | 3.33 |
| Werder Bremen -0.75 | 22% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| SC Freiburg -1.75 | 21% | 23% | 4.15 |
| Werder Bremen -1 | 18% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| SC Freiburg -2 | 17% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model's main pick is Werder Bremen with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.
Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen.
What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.75 for SC Freiburg and 1.37 for Werder Bremen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen play?
Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 13:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Sabah FAvs
Slavia PrahaUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct16:45
Lensvs
Sporting CPUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct16:45
Arsenalvs
LilleUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct19:00
Villarrealvs
NapoliUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct19:00
Vikingvs
Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct19:00
RB Leipzigvs
PSV EindhovenUEFA Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct19:00Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.