⚽ Bundesliga

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

SC Freiburg face Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: SC Freiburg have 2 wins from their last 5, while Werder Bremen have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, SC Freiburg won 4, Werder Bremen won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.8-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

82%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.75 – 1.37 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.4%	6.0%	4.1%	1.9%	0.6%
1	7.7%	10.6%	7.3%	3.3%	1.1%
2	6.8%	9.3%	6.3%	2.9%	1.0%
3	3.9%	5.4%	3.7%	1.7%	0.6%
4	1.7%	2.4%	1.6%	0.7%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

SC Freiburg winDrawWerder Bremen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a SC Freiburg win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (62%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.73 (+4.3% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.73, 60% model probability, +4.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

SC Freiburg 48%Draw 27%Werder Bremen 26%

48%27%26%

48%

SC Freiburg Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

+4.3%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen. Wins shown from SC Freiburg’s perspective: SC Freiburg 4 · Werder Bremen 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-07	SC Freiburg	1 – 0	Werder Bremen	W
2025-09-20	Werder Bremen	0 – 3	SC Freiburg	W
2025-02-21	SC Freiburg	5 – 0	Werder Bremen	W
2024-10-05	Werder Bremen	0 – 1	SC Freiburg	W
2024-01-27	Werder Bremen	3 – 1	SC Freiburg	L

📈 Recent form

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at Fortuna Düsseldorf. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WSC Freiburg 4-1 MotherwellUEFA Europa Conference
WFortuna Düsseldorf 1-5 SC FreiburgDFB Pokal
WMotherwell 1-3 SC FreiburgUEFA Europa Conference
WSC Freiburg 3-0 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
WSC Freiburg 2-0 StrasbourgFriendlies Clubs

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Lüneburger SK Hansa. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Auxerre.

WLüneburger SK Hansa 0-3 Werder BremenDFB Pokal
LWerder Bremen 0-1 AuxerreFriendlies Clubs
DWerder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
WEnergie Cottbus 2-4 Werder BremenFriendlies Clubs
WWerder Bremen 2-0 VfL BochumFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

SC Freiburg

F. MuslijaKnee Injury
P. OsterhageMuscle Injury
R. YamamotoInjury

Werder Bremen

F. AguCalf Injury
K. ToppKnee Injury
M. WeiserKnee Injury
O. WojcikMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices SC Freiburg at 48% to win and Werder Bremen at 26%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	27%	@ 3.55	-5.1%
SC Freiburg Win	48%	@ 1.97	-6.4%
Werder Bremen Win	26%	@ 3.60	-7.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is SC Freiburg or Draw at 1.28 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
SC Freiburg or Draw	74%	@ 1.28	-5.9%
Werder Bremen or Draw	52%	@ 1.80	-6.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	38%	@ 2.80	+6.3%
Over 2.5	60%	@ 1.73	+4.3%
Over 1.5	82%	@ 1.25	+2.3%
Under 3.5	62%	@ 1.42	-11.9%
Under 2.5	40%	@ 2.10	-16.7%
Under 1.5	18%	@ 3.95	-28.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	62%	@ 1.62	-0.2%
BTTS No	38%	@ 2.20	-15.5%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	46%
Dixon-Coles	Home	47%
GradientBoosting	Home	48%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.55 for the home side, 1.08 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 82% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.73 (+4.3% value).

Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

Our model makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen.

What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.75 for SC Freiburg and 1.37 for Werder Bremen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.