⚽ La Liga

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sevilla face Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. Recent form: Sevilla have 3 wins from their last 5, while Atletico Madrid have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Sevilla won 2, Atletico Madrid won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atletico Madrid win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.1-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.30

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.15 – 1.61 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	10.2%	8.2%	4.4%	1.8%
1	7.3%	11.7%	9.4%	5.1%	2.0%
2	4.2%	6.7%	5.4%	2.9%	1.2%
3	1.6%	2.6%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.5%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Sevilla winDrawAtletico Madrid win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates an Atletico Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.97 (+2.6% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.97, 52% model probability, +2.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Sevilla 24%Draw 27%Atletico Madrid 50%

24%27%50%

50%

Atletico Madrid Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

+2.6%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid. Wins shown from Sevilla’s perspective: Sevilla 2 · Atletico Madrid 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-11	Sevilla	2 – 1	Atletico Madrid	W
2025-11-01	Atletico Madrid	3 – 0	Sevilla	L
2025-04-06	Sevilla	1 – 2	Atletico Madrid	L
2024-12-08	Atletico Madrid	4 – 3	Sevilla	L
2024-02-11	Sevilla	1 – 0	Atletico Madrid	W

📈 Recent form

Sevilla

Sevilla come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Athletic Club. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Bayer Leverkusen.

WAthletic Club 1-3 SevillaLa Liga
WSevilla 2-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
LBayer Leverkusen 2-1 SevillaFriendlies Clubs
WUtrecht 0-1 SevillaFriendlies Clubs
WNEC Nijmegen 1-2 SevillaFriendlies Clubs

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Getafe. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Manchester City.

WAtletico Madrid 2-0 MalagaLa Liga
WMarseille 1-2 Atletico MadridFriendlies Clubs
LManchester City 3-1 Atletico MadridFriendlies Clubs
LManchester United 2-1 Atletico MadridFriendlies Clubs
WAtletico Madrid 4-1 GetafeFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sevilla at 24% to win and Atletico Madrid at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an Atletico Madrid win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Atletico Madrid Win	50%	@ 2.08	+3.7%
Draw	27%	@ 3.52	-6.5%
Sevilla Win	24%	@ 3.63	-14.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 2.5	52%	@ 1.97	+2.6%
Over 3.5	30%	@ 3.37	+0.8%
Over 1.5	76%	@ 1.30	-0.9%
Under 3.5	70%	@ 1.34	-6.1%
Under 2.5	48%	@ 1.90	-9.0%
Under 1.5	24%	@ 3.60	-14.3%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.97 (+2.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?

Our model makes an Atletico Madrid win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid.

What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Sevilla and 1.61 for Atletico Madrid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sevilla and Atletico Madrid play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.