⚽ La Liga
Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Result: Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano finished 2-1. Sevilla won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Sevilla face Rayo Vallecano in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Sevilla won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.1-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3% | 11.6% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 11.9% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Rayo Vallecano with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano. Wins shown from Sevilla’s perspective: Sevilla 3 · 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Sevilla | 2 – 1 | Rayo Vallecano | W |
| 2026-03-08 | Sevilla | 1 – 1 | Rayo Vallecano | D |
| 2025-09-28 | Rayo Vallecano | 0 – 1 | Sevilla | W |
| 2025-03-01 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 – 1 | Sevilla | D |
| 2024-11-24 | Sevilla | 1 – 0 | Rayo Vallecano | W |
📈 Recent form
Sevilla come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Deportivo La Coruña. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Barcelona.
- LSevilla 1-3 BarcelonaLa Liga
- WDeportivo La Coruña 0-1 SevillaLa Liga
- WSevilla 1-0 ValenciaLa Liga
- DEspanyol 1-1 SevillaLa Liga
- LSevilla 1-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
Rayo Vallecano come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Espanyol. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Real Madrid.
- DOsasuna 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- WRayo Vallecano 2-1 EspanyolLa Liga
- LReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- WRayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- LBarcelona 5-2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. GonzalezMuscle Injury
- MarcaoFoot Injury
- M. KumbullaMuscle Injury
- Luiz FelipeHamstring Injury
- D. MendezKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Sevilla at 31% to win and Rayo Vallecano at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano Win | 39% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
| Sevilla Win | 31% | 41% | @ 2.32 |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.58 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano or Draw | 67% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
| Sevilla or Draw | 59% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 80% | 77% | @ 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 34% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 54% | 49% | @ 1.88 |
| BTTS Yes | 46% | 51% | @ 1.84 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sevilla or Rayo Vallecano is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano +1.75 | 89% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Rayo Vallecano +1.5 | 86% | 80% | @ 1.17 |
| Rayo Vallecano +1.25 | 82% | 78% | 1.23 |
| Sevilla +1.5 | 81% | 86% | 1.06 |
| Rayo Vallecano +1 | 77% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Sevilla +1.25 | 75% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Rayo Vallecano +0.75 | 72% | 66% | @ 1.45 |
| Sevilla +1 | 70% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Rayo Vallecano +0.5 | 67% | 58% | @ 1.61 |
| Sevilla +0.75 | 64% | 77% | 1.24 |
| Rayo Vallecano +0.25 | 61% | 52% | @ 1.86 |
| Sevilla +0.5 | 59% | 70% | 1.34 |
| Rayo Vallecano 0 | 54% | 41% | @ 2.31 |
| Sevilla +0.25 | 52% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Rayo Vallecano -0.25 | 48% | 35% | @ 2.77 |
| Sevilla 0 | 46% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Rayo Vallecano -0.5 | 41% | 30% | @ 3.19 |
| Sevilla -0.25 | 39% | 48% | 2.02 |
| Rayo Vallecano -0.75 | 36% | 23% | @ 4.17 |
| Sevilla -0.5 | 33% | 42% | 2.27 |
| Rayo Vallecano -1 | 30% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Sevilla -0.75 | 28% | 34% | 2.79 |
| Rayo Vallecano -1.25 | 25% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Sevilla -1 | 23% | 25% | 3.84 |
| Rayo Vallecano -1.5 | 19% | 14% | @ 6.75 |
| Sevilla -1.25 | 18% | 22% | 4.33 |
| Sevilla -1.5 | 14% | 20% | 4.60 |
| Sevilla -1.75 | 11% | 14% | 6.60 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model's main pick is Rayo Vallecano with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.1 scoreline for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Sevilla and 1.12 for Rayo Vallecano. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano play?
Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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