⚽ Major League Soccer
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.
Sporting Kansas City face Portland Timbers in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Sporting Kansas City have 2 wins from their last 5, while Portland Timbers have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Sporting Kansas City won 1, Portland Timbers won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely result at 34%, projecting a 2.0-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 3.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| 2 | 3.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 34%. Goals lean over 2.5 (76%), both teams to score points yes (73%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers. Wins shown from Sporting Kansas City’s perspective: Sporting Kansas City 1 · 1 drawn · Portland Timbers 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Portland Timbers | 6 – 0 | Sporting Kansas City | L |
| 2024-05-26 | Portland Timbers | 2 – 1 | Sporting Kansas City | L |
| 2024-04-07 | Sporting Kansas City | 3 – 3 | Portland Timbers | D |
| 2023-05-28 | Sporting Kansas City | 4 – 1 | Portland Timbers | W |
| 2023-02-28 | Portland Timbers | 1 – 0 | Sporting Kansas City | L |
📈 Recent form
Sporting Kansas City come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Houston Dynamo. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Seattle Sounders.
- LSeattle Sounders 2-1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- WHouston Dynamo 0-2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- LSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WSporting Kansas City 3-1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- LFC Dallas 4-3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Portland Timbers come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 5-4 at home to Minnesota United FC. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at San Jose Earthquakes.
- LSan Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- LPortland Timbers 0-1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- LFC Dallas 2-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WPortland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Sporting Kansas City at 34% to win and Portland Timbers at 33%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City Win | 34% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
| Portland Timbers Win | 33% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
| Draw | 33% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sporting Kansas City or Draw at 1.50 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City or Draw | 64% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| Portland Timbers or Draw | 63% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 76% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 | 76% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 50% | @ 1.83 |
| Under 3.5 | 44% | 50% | @ 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
| Under 1.5 | 9% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 73%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 73% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| BTTS No | 27% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.
Who is the favourite for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
Our model makes a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely result at 34%. It projects an expected 2.0-2.0 scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.98 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.99 for Portland Timbers. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers play?
Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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