vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 00:30 UTC.
St. Louis City face Houston Dynamo in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 00:30 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, St. Louis City won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Houston Dynamo win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a Houston Dynamo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (56%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Houston Dynamo or Draw at odds 1.75 (+12.6% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between St. Louis City and Houston Dynamo. Wins shown from St. Louis City’s perspective: St. Louis City 2 · 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | St. Louis City | 3 – 0 | Houston Dynamo | W |
| 2024-05-05 | Houston Dynamo | 0 – 0 | St. Louis City | D |
| 2023-09-17 | Houston Dynamo | 1 – 1 | St. Louis City | D |
| 2023-06-04 | St. Louis City | 3 – 0 | Houston Dynamo | W |
📈 Recent form
St. Louis City come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Austin. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DSporting Kansas City 1-1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WSt. Louis City 3-0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- DDC United 1-1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WSt. Louis City 2-1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
Houston Dynamo come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 1. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to CD Olimpia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WVancouver Whitecaps 0-1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WHouston Dynamo 1-0 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- WNew England Revolution 0-2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WHouston Dynamo 3-0 CD OlimpiaFriendlies Clubs
- DLos Angeles Galaxy 1-1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Celio PompeuKnee Injury
- C. DurkinSuspended (cards)
- K. HiebertHip Injury
- B. McSorleyAnkle Injury
- J. MaurerConcussion
- Arthur SousaInjury
- Felipe AndradeLower-Body Injury
- V. SilvaInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices St. Louis City at 35% to win and Houston Dynamo at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Houston Dynamo win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo Win | 37% | @ 3.30 | +22.2% |
| Draw | 28% | @ 3.75 | +6.0% |
| St. Louis City Win | 35% | @ 2.02 | -29.9% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Houston Dynamo or Draw at 1.75 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo or Draw | 64% | @ 1.75 | +12.6% |
| St. Louis City or Draw | 62% | @ 1.30 | -19.3% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 47% | @ 2.25 | +5.6% |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | @ 1.50 | +3.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | @ 4.33 | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | @ 1.20 | -7.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | @ 1.62 | -14.1% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | @ 2.55 | -21.4% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 44% | @ 2.35 | +3.5% |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | @ 1.53 | -14.4% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 50% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 44% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 38% |
Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.
Expected goals: 1.27 for the home side, 1.32 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with 69% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Houston Dynamo or Draw at 1.75 (+12.6% value).
Who is the favourite for St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
Our model makes a Houston Dynamo win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline for St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo.
What is the predicted score for St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.46 for St. Louis City and 1.34 for Houston Dynamo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do St. Louis City and Houston Dynamo play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 00:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.